The other side of the global crisis: entropy and the collapse of civilizations

6 03 2016

This is a post from Ugo Bardi’s website. When I first read it, I found so many errors of spelling and syntax that I found it hard going….. but then I realised it had been written by an Italian, and frankly, if I could write an article as good as this in Italian (or even in French, my ‘native language’), I’d be very happy with myself.  So I went through it with a fine tooth comb and re-edited it.  Once or twice, I wasn’t actually sure what the author meant, so I hope I haven’t run astray with my effort to ‘fix it’…….  well worth the read, especially if ‘you’re into’ entropy.

Guest post by Jacopo Simonetta

When we discuss the impending crisis of our civilisation, we mainly look at the resourcesjacopo-6 our economy needs in growing quantity. And we explain why the Diminishing Returns of resource exploitation pose a growing burden on  the possibility of a further growing of the global economy. It is a very interesting topic, indeed, but here I suggest we turn 180 degrees around and take a look at the “other side;” that is to what happens where the used resources are discarded.

Eventually, our society (as any other society in history) is a dissipative structure. It means that it exist only because it is able to dissipate energy in order to stock information inside itself. And there is a positive feedback: more energy permits to implement more complexity; and more complexity needs, but also permits a larger energy flow. This, I think, is a crucial point: at the very end, wealth is information stocked inside the socio-economic system in different forms (such livestock, infrastructures, agrarian facilities, machines, buildings, books, the web and so on). Human population is peculiar because it is a large part of the information stocked inside the society system. So, from a thermodynamic point of view, it is the key part of “wealth”, while from an economic point of view people can be seen as the denominator of global wealth.

The accumulation of information inside a system is possible only by an increment of entropy outside the same system. This is usual with all the dissipative structures, but our civilisation is unique in its dimension. Today about 97% of the terrestrial vertebrate biomass is composed of humans and of their symbionts and we use about 50% of the primary production (400 TW?), plus a little less than 20 TW we get from fossil fuels and other inorganic sources.

At the beginning, our modern civilisation performed in the same way as all the others in history: appropriating energy forms such as food, livestock, commodities, slaves, oil, carbon and so on, and throwing entropy to the biosphere in different forms such as pollutants, ecosystems transformations, extinctions, heat and so on; while throwing entropy to other societies as war, migration, etcetera.

As the industrial economy overruled and substituted all others, it became the only economy in the world, and so, necessarily, found more and more difficulties in dissipating energy outside itself. In practice, sinks become problematic before wells do. But remember that in order to implement its own complexity, a dissipative system needs a growing energy flow; that is, it needs cornucopian energy wells.

Today, both global pollution and massive immigration into the more industrialized countries is evidence that our system is no longer able to expel entropy out of itself. But if entropy is not discharged out of the system, it necessarily grows inside it. And when there is more energy, there is more entropy in a typical diminishing returns dynamic. Maybe, we can see here a negative feedback which has stopped economic growth and that will possibly crash the global economy in some decades.  [Ed- this is highly optimistic, the crash has started, and ‘in some decades’ the economy will simpy no longer exist!]

If this reasoning is correct, the political and the economic crisis, social disruption and, finally, failing states are nothing less than the visible aspect of the growing entropy inside our own meta-system. Eventually, global society is so large and complex as is obvious in many correlated sub-systems that we are now managing it in order to concentrate entropy inside the less powerful ones: some yet problematic countries, lower classes and, especially, the young. But these phenomena produce political shifts, riots and mass migrations at the core of the system. This also means that the elites have lost the capability to understand and/or control the internal dynamic of the global socio-economic system.

In the meantime, the overloading of the sinks is starting to cause the deterioration of the wells. This is evident, for instance, with air and water pollution, ocean acidification, mass extinction, ecosystems disruption, and much more. In the end, as the economy grows, the global system necessarily loses the capacity to dissipate energy, condemning itself to disruption.

We can find the same phenomenon at smaller scales, such as for a single organism, or such as in a single human being. If a good energy flow is available in the form of food and heat, a baby can develop into a strong and healthy adult. Good flows of energy during adult life mean a better life and the possibility to develop culture, skills, art, science and to keep one’s health for a long time. Insufficient energy means starvation and illness. But it is also true that if the body absorbs a quantity of energy larger than its capacity to dissipate it, then we have problems such as, illness, obesity and, finally, a bad life and premature death.

We found the very same phenomenon at larger scales as well. The Earth as a whole is also a dissipative, complex system. It does not have any problems with its main energy well, the Sun. We can be sure that the 86,000 TW that we receive from the sun on average are not going away, although they will gradually increase over very long time spans. But the whole biosphere is collapsing in one of the most serious crisis it has ever faced during the 4.5 billions years of its history. This crisis is the result of human activity that reduces the capability of the ecosystem to dissipate the energy input, in particular as a result of the greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. So the internal entropy grows with the consequence of harming even more the ecosystems and reducing complexity, possibly leading to a global disaster at a geological scale.

In conclusion, I suggest that, in the coming decades, entropy will be a much more challenging problem than that of the energy supply. Only a drastic reduction in the energy input could save the biosphere. But this is a high price to pay because a reduction of energy flow means necessarily a reduction of complexity and information stored inside the human sub-system. It means misery and death for much of the human population, although it also means hope for the future one (assuming that it will exist, but humans are too adaptable and resilient to go extinct as long as a functioning biosphere exists) So, new civilizations will appear but, in order for that to occur, the present civilization will have to collapse fast enough to leave a livable planet to our descendants.

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10 responses

6 03 2016
rabiddoomsayer

All the more reason to get away from populated areas. The complexity of the system means the final collapse will be stunningly fast; catastrophic, cascading, failure. The inter-relatedness and complexity means no part of the system can go on alone.

Once the trucks stop rolling cities will be history within the week. Three days of food, then nine missed meals to chaos. And the trucks will stop rolling soon after the financial system collapses.

19 03 2016
gbell12

The opposite of every one of your statements can be argued convincingly. Paragraphs like yours were written in spades in 2006 and they were “stunningly” wrong.

The inevitability of any of this is uncertain.

22 03 2016
rabiddoomsayer

Collapse is inevitable, all civilizations collapse. When is not so certain.What is certain is that we are so very much more vulnerable than ever before in history. In centuries past smaller communities had much more ability to go it alone, that resilience is long gone.

9 03 2016
Shelley Hartman

Entropy is key. I gave a paper, “Entropy, Individualism and the Collapse of Empires” at the European Association of Archaeologists’ AGM in Istanbul in 2014. If you are interested, see https://www.academia.edu/11933448/Entropy_Individualism_and_the_Collapse_of_Empires ,for a detailed breakdown on why we do the things we do. Quite the train wreck.

11 03 2016
rabiddoomsayer

Is there any theory of collapse that does not not lead to the conclusion we are deeply F#@ed. How often do you see, be we are different.

Interesting analysis about the rise of individualism an impending collapse, this would tend to indicate the coming collapse could start in the US.

You smallest perturbation rippling outwards suggests a slower collapse than my catastrophic, cascading failure, (a term from electrical distribution systems). Shame scientists are supposed to avoid the use of emotive terms.

We certainly are hyper integrated. And the complexity is a trap, perhaps you are right an inevitable trap. But we seem so determined to bring collapse on.

You avoided giving an estimate of when, but I see nothing hopeful in you analysis. Soon is my feeling, but I cannot quantify that.

13 03 2016
Ugo Bardi

Hi there! Thanks for editing Jacopo’s post. I took your version and I replaced the old version with it. With many thanks for the editing work and for the interest! I’ll ask Jacopo if your interpretations of the text were correct. And I couldn’t find your name on this site, maybe you don’t want it to be known, so that I referred to you as a “grumpy old man” as in your “about” page. 🙂 ATB. Ugo

13 03 2016
mikestasse

Hi Ugo, thanks for popping in, and I’m glad to be of assistance. I found it interesting that some of Jacopo’s turn of phrases were very similar to the way French is written/spoke, so it made it relatively easy for me find meaning in what is now my main language, English..

Unless you’re familiar with the British TV series called “Grumpy Old Men”, most people would not understand why I used that term in my “about” page.

They say we live in interesting times, but I think we live in frustrating times myself…….. so much could be done to avoid collapse, if only we weren’t let by idiots.

13 03 2016
Ugo Bardi

I am not familiar with the British series, but the concept of “grumpy old men” is popular in many contexts. And I think I am getting to be one, too….. But you are Mike Stasse, right? Can I cite your name?

14 03 2016
mikestasse

Yes of course, go right ahead….. I am hardly anonymous over this internet!

13 03 2016
Jacopo Simonetta

Hello Mr. “Mikestasse”, thank your for editing. In fact I use to read English, but I speak mostly in Italian and French. You have detected it very well.

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