We have a plan……..

21 10 2016

It’s been raining. Lots. So much so, nearly everyone I know here is complaining, and is over it….. One advantage of being stuck indoors is that one can get around to doing the things that don’t get done when the weather’s fine and there are holes to dig, crops to plant, or grass to harvest… like planning.


No, the grass is not photoshopped, it really is that green!

Just to prove the old dictum “it’s not what you know, it’s who you know”, Bernie, my new town planning friend (full of stories you would not believe…..) has put a fire in my belly, and we have been working on our planning application. I have to tell you, I had just about given up on doing this project ‘the right way’, but Bernie assures me that if you approach Council talking their language, you can just about get anything through, as long as you follow the guidelines.

Our farm, as you may or may not know, has been rezoned ‘Significant Agricultural Land’. I like to think that’s why I picked it…… we are so lucky to own what I consider the best block in Geeveston! Not that I’m biased or anything…

One of the problems I was facing is that the rezoning calls for side setbacks of 100m, and our block is only 180m wide, meaning we can only achieve the correct setback on one side, not both. No problem says Bernie…… because when you read the fine print, it says “40m if the lot is greater than 1ha (it’s 5…) or if there is an existing building set back less than this distance, the setback must not be less than the existing building”! The shed from within which I am writing this is a mere two metres from the side fence! Let me assure you, I have no desire to be that close to the boundary!

Problem fixed……

The only other thing we have to show, is that our intention is to farm the land, not use it as some getaway for retired old farts like me……

After being here for over a year now, I have had a lot of time to think and foster my Permaculture Master Plan for this place, and putting pen to paper, literally, produced a rather impressive looking plan that Bernie was blown away by……. I also wrote a two and a half page document that Bernie will use as an appendix to his planning report, describing how using permaculture principles we plan to turn this farm from significant, to exceptional, and why we need to live here to realise the Fanny Farm’s full potential…….


Permaculture Masterplan


New pump, new suction pipe…

A lot of this is already started. In fact, before the rain set in, I even installed a pump that takes water out of the dam to an IBC perched atop the power station (see photo below). The idea is to gravity feed water to the market garden under construction, and the seedlings growing in the new polytunnel

Yes, I’ve been busy, until the current deluge made digging holes and planting anything simply not worth the effort.

The pump turned into a bit of a saga…… months ago, I discovered hundreds of metres of 40 and 50mm poly pipe, worth at least $2000 to replace. Some of the 50mm stuff went into the polytunnel, and my intention was to use the 40mm plumbing to lift water some 9.5 m from the dam to the roof of the power station. What I had not counted on was that the previous owner had slashed over the pipes, causing fairly major damage to the piping. The suction side of a


Pumped storage

pump must not have any leaks in it, because water pumps are not air compressors, and while they can pressurise (incompressible) water to, in the case of this pump, over 400psi, water pumps cannot pressurise air to anything over 0.25psi!

The end result of any air leak is no suction, period…. after mucking around for hours, I eventually decided to bite the bullet and spend fifty odd bucks on a new 25m length of pipe, end of problem. until that is, I broke the pump…..


Eastern side of market garden fence… water water everywhere..!


Well, I think it was my fault. The day before, we had our usual dose of gale force wind, but frankly I can’t see how it was responsible. Similarly, I find it hard to believe that by merely flicking the delivery pipe a few inches some 20m from the pump, could break the casing where that vertical riser in the photo is screwed to the pump…… but broken it was. I took the pump back to Hobart to see if I could claim warranty, but the shop people thought I’d be wasting my time, and the manager offered to replace it free of charge with a second hand one, within one day. Casings don’t wear out, as far as I know, so I accepted, and in no time I had the IBC atop the container full of water, at 100L/minute.

With all the rain we’ve had, everything is waterlogged, and I have no idea when I will next water anything…..! Such is life. And I was panicking when I broke the outlet from the dam. It’s been overflowing nonstop for days now.


Waterfall time…..

The beauty of having so much rain is that I am now aware of how much water I have to deal with behind the retaining wall that forms the backbone of the new house….

The engineer specified one 100mm drainage pipe, but I have already bought two. Not taking any chances; the last thing we need is a waterfall in the house next time La Niña visits Tasmania!

Another Harquebus newsletter…..

19 10 2016

Hi all.

It has been some time since my last. I have been hoping against hope that some of our main stream journalists would have realized by now that, the growth mantra espoused by business leaders and pursued by their minions, our politicians, is not the road to prosperity but, is instead a fools errand that will eventually bring about a collapse. Mathematics does not lie.

Pursuing growth is equivalent to chasing death and we are gaining on it. It is destroying the environment, poisoning everything in the ocean that we eat and consuming at an ever increasing rate all that is required to sustain us.

Our politicians are crazy. Only the insane could think that growth can continue forever.

Our main stream journalists, they are wimps. They are more interested is saving their jobs than they are about saving their children. Who else would sacrifice their children for the insane concept of infinite growth other than insanely pathetic wimps?

Again, I urge all journalists on my list to wake the (insert expletive here) up, find your courage and do something about this mad pursuit of growth at all costs while there is something left to save. Time is short.

“As long as we pursue growth, no amount of resources will solve our problems.” — Irv Mills

“One day, because of the white mans’ or Yo-ne-gis’ greed, there would come a time, when the fish would die in the streams, the birds would fall from the air, the waters would be blackened, and the trees would no longer be, mankind as we would know it would all but cease to exist.” — Eyes of Fire of the Cree Indian tribe prophecy.



“Limits to growth means a shrinking piece of pie for everyone.  Capitalism can only justify the huge disparities in wealth distribution the constant propaganda that we all have the potential to become billionaires (especially if the government stops regulating businesses and taxing the rich).”
“Capitalism is lauded as the best political and economic system, but in reality it’s just the most successful at extracting energy and natural resources the most quickly to enrich mainly the top 0.1% of the population, future generations be damned.


“Every minute, on average, there was a net increase of some 169 people, and every day, an already overburdened Mother Earth had to somehow furnish food, clean freshwater, wood, energy, land, raw materials and a safe, stable climate for 244,000 new claimants and consumers.”
“The need to provide ever more energy for an ever-increasing population will alone generate massive environmental impacts.”
“Human overpopulation and overconsumption have pushed the Earth into its sixth major extinction event since multicellular life emerged on the planet.”
“But reality is reality: on a finite planet, population growth will stop, one way or the other. The only question is how:”


“We know our current path will lead to catastrophe—incompatible with the livelihoods of billions of people. These profound changes will happen in our lifetimes. These impacts will happen, and are happening, to us. That scientists are willing to speak in increasingly bold terms about the seemingly impossible situation we’re in may help us to question the fundamental economic model that’s brought us to this point.”


“Despite its outlandish theoretical flaws and nonsensical economic jargon and the catastrophic empirical evidence of its failure to prevent financial downturns or “stimulate” sustainable growth, Keynesianism remains the ruling paradigm of economic thought.”

“A number of trenchant reasons have been given for the General Theory’s continued dominance, however, one stands above all else: Keynesian economics provides the intellectual justification for economists, statisticians, technocrats, bureaucrats, and policy wonks in their exalted positions as “fine tuners” of economies the world over.”
“That Keynesianism continues to reign supreme, despite its theoretical and empirical bankruptcy, speaks volumes of the state of Western intellectual and academic life.  Instead of the pursuit of truth and the refutation of error, Western intelligentsia is primarily concerned with securing privilege and power for itself.


“So from 1992, right when Earth was experiencing a freak cooling period caused by a humungous volcanic eruption, scientists established a whole new way of measuring sea levels, and it’s led to one of the biggest mysteries in climate science – why rising sea levels have remained so oddly consistent.”

“And so we now live in a hyper-sensitive society in which social memes and feelings have overtaken biological and objective reality as the main determinants of right and wrong.”

“This is what the cynics just don’t seem to grasp; we are dealing with a group of narcissistic psychopaths organized around a cult ideology and with nearly unlimited resources at their fingertips.  These people think they are rising man-gods, like the Egyptian pharaohs of old.  They cannot be persuaded through superior logic or emotional appeal.  They will not be deterred by mass activism or peaceful redress.  They only understand one thing — the force of arms and the usefulness of lies.”


“So as the cheaper, easier stuff is no longer growing, the world has to rely on more expensive unconventionals, like tar sands in Canada or shale gas in the US, which require costly fracking technology to extract, and more difficult processes to refine.”
“The more we rely on more expensive and lower quality energy to keep the economy moving, the slower the economy moves.”


“From 1998 to 2012, the rate at which the global surface temperature increased slowed down—a phenomenon dubbed “the global warming hiatus.” During the same time period, sea level in the western tropical Pacific Ocean increased four times faster than the average global sea level rise.”

“There’s a danger that, as the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, huge amounts of methane will enter the atmosphere due to destabilization of hydrates at its seafloor.”

“For the capitalists, the bottom line is far more pressing than the fate of the planet or those who live on it.”

“The exploitation at the heart of capitalism also gives rise to a wholly oppressive system that is not simply economic. Exploitation cannot function without an accompanying ideological and legal apparatus backed up by the armed might of the police and the military.
At its heart, capitalism is an exploitative system driven by competition for profit. These features cannot be reformed away. They can be overthrown only by the working class collectively taking control of the means of production and wielding them to create a society in which profit and competition are no longer our masters.”
“Of all the resources in the world, oil is top dog.  All other resources depend on oil.  You can get every fish in the sea, drain every drop out of non-renewable aquifers, make enough concrete to pave the planet, and convert every square mile of land to grow crops and feed barnyard animals cutting down the remaining forests.  Which we are well on our way to doing.  But only oil can do it, because the heavy-duty diesel engines that do the essential work of civilization run on diesel fuel.”

“In addition to the acidification threatening the bottom of the oceanic food chain, we have already stripped off the top of the food chain. 90% of the apex predators in the ocean are gone, fished out and eaten by humans over the last 100 years. The ocean is now largely a garbage-filled desert, favored by ever-increasing numbers of jellyfish.”
” From the evidence in the ice core records, natural processes take about 1000 years to remove 1 ppm of CO2 from the air. So it would take the planet 120,000 years to remove the CO2 we’ve added over the last 200 years. And we’re adding another 2,500 years to that planetary bill every single year.”


“Drought and heat are the apparent culprits in the largest killing of mangrove thickets ever recorded in the world — 17,000 acres along 400 miles of northern Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria. This catastrophe for all sea life in the region, just reported last week, coincides with the world’s worst ever coral bleaching event, on the Great Barrier Reef, and the death of a 60-mile-long stretch of kelp forest off Australia’s western coast.”

“Long story short, we should be frightened because if humans continue on their current course, we are very likely (insert expletive here).”
“Lead researcher Associate Professor Nerilie Abram from The Australian National University (ANU) said the study found warming began during the early stages of the Industrial Revolution and is first detectable in the Arctic and tropical oceans around the 1830s, much earlier than scientists had expected.”
“”The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.”
[http://”Lead researcher Associate Professor Nerilie Abram from The Australian National University (ANU) said the study found warming began during the early stages of the Industrial Revolution and is first detectable in the Arctic and tropical oceans around the 1830s, much earlier than scientists had expected.” “”The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.” phys.org/news/2016-08-humans-climate-years.html]phys.org/news/2016-08-humans-climate-years.html

“The principle antagonists in the destruction of orangutan natural habitats are the companies who have come to depend on cheap palm oil to produce a broad array of consumer products from biodiesel fuel to hair and beauty-care products like shampoo and toothpaste to food products such as pizza crusts, frying oil, snack foods and noodles.”
“Given that much argument and hate is fought in a world of insult (the cleverer the better) often waged intemperately and unreasonably, the protections of such an exempting section are bound to be skimpy. Australia’s continued hostility to a Bill of Rights insists that judges and lawmakers, not the public, which is regarded with suspicion, should determine reason and good faith.”
“Free speech remains the terror of the Antipodean mind, one ever faithful to penal control and state regulation.”

“Sea levels are dropping, earthquakes and volcanoes are waking up, and even the earth’s axis is moving—all because of melting ice”

“The age of 400 parts per million CO2 is here. It’s something not seen in about 3 million years.”


The Party’s Over…..

17 10 2016

I almost republished Raul Ilargi Meijer’s excellent article titled “Why There is Trump”, but I was too busy, or ran out of data or some other poor excuse.  Anyhow, this new article quotes Raul’s writing so much, I no longer feel the need to. This item was lifted straight from the Automatic Earth, and because it’s written by someone with an important past, and the subject matter is critical, it needs to be shared around.

The farcical US presidential election as far as I am concerned is proof positive that America is in an utter state of collapse. Let’s face it, what intelligent person would want to be in charge right now, when nobody will be willing to implement any of the solutions I at least believe are necessary?


Alastair Crooke: ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent

Raul Ilargi Meijer, the long-standing economics commentator, has written both succinctly – and provocatively: “It’s over! The entire model our societies have been based on for at least as long as we ourselves have lived, is over! That’s why there’s Trump.

“There is no growth. There hasn’t been any real growth for years. All there is left are empty hollow sunshiny S&P stock market numbers propped up with ultra-cheap debt and buybacks, and employment figures that hide untold millions hiding from the labor force. And most of all there’s debt, public as well as private, that has served to keep an illusion of growth alive and now increasingly no longer can.

“These false growth numbers have one purpose only: for the public to keep the incumbent powers that be in their plush seats. But they could always ever only pull the curtain of Oz [Wizard of Oz] over people’s eyes for so long, and it’s no longer so long.

“That’s what the ascent of Trump means, and Brexit, Le Pen, and all the others. It’s over. What has driven us for all our lives has lost both its direction and its energy.”

Meijer continues: “We are smack in the middle of the most important global development in decades, in some respects arguably even in centuries, a veritable revolution, which will continue to be the most important factor to shape the world for years to come, and I don’t see anybody talking about it. That has me puzzled.

“The development in question is the end of global economic growth, which will lead inexorably to the end of centralization (including globalization). It will also mean the end of the existence of most, and especially the most powerful, international institutions.

“In the same way it will be the end of -almost- all traditional political parties, which have ruled their countries for decades and are already today at or near record low support levels (if you’re not clear on what’s going on, look there, look at Europe!)

“This is not a matter of what anyone, or any group of people, might want or prefer, it’s a matter of ‘forces’ that are beyond our control, that are bigger and more far-reaching than our mere opinions, even though they may be man-made.

“Tons of smart and less smart folks are breaking their heads over where Trump and Brexit and Le Pen and all these ‘new’ and scary things and people and parties originate, and they come up with little but shaky theories about how it’s all about older people, and poorer and racist and bigoted people, stupid people, people who never voted, you name it.

“But nobody seems to really know or understand. Which is odd, because it’s not that hard. That is, this all happens because growth is over. And if growth is over, so are expansion and centralization in all the myriad of shapes and forms they come in.”

Further, Meijer writes: “Global is gone as a main driving force, pan-European is gone, and whether the United States will stay united is far from a done deal. We are moving towards a mass movement of dozens of separate countries and states and societies looking inward. All of which are in some form of -impending- trouble or another.

“What makes the entire situation so hard to grasp for everyone is that nobody wants to acknowledge any of this. Even though tales of often bitter poverty emanate from all the exact same places that Trump and Brexit and Le Pen come from too.

“That the politico-econo-media machine churns out positive growth messages 24/7 goes some way towards explaining the lack of acknowledgement and self-reflection, but only some way. The rest is due to who we ourselves are. We think we deserve eternal growth.”

The End of ‘Growth’

Well, is global “growth over”? Of course Raul Ilargi is talking “aggregate” (and there will be instances of growth within any contraction). But what is clear is that debt-driven investment and low-interest-rate policies are having less and less effect – or no effect at all – in producing growth – either in terms of domestic or trade growth, as Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge writes:


“After almost two years of the quantitative easing program in the Euro Area, economic figures have remained very weak. As GEFIRA details, inflation is still fluctuating near zero, while GDP growth in the region has started to slow down instead of accelerating. According to the ECB data, to generate €1.0 of GDP growth, €18.5 had to be printed in the QE, … This year, the ECB printed nearly €600 billion within the frame of asset purchase programme (QE).”

Central Banks can and do create money, but that is not the same as creating wealth or purchasing power. By channelling their credit creation through the intermediary of banks granting loans to their favored clients, Central Banks grant to one set of entities purchasing power – a purchasing power that must necessarily have been transferred from another set of entities within Europe (i.e. transferred from ordinary Europeans in the case of the ECB), who, of course will have less purchasing power, less discretionary spending income.

The devaluation of purchasing power is not so obvious (no runaway inflation), because all major currencies are devaluing more or less pari passu – and because the authorities periodically steam hammer down the price of gold, so that there is no evident standard by which people can “see” for themselves the extent of their currencies’ joint downward float.

And world trade is grinding down too, as Lambert Strether of Corrente rather elegantly explains: “Back to shipping: I started following shipping … partly because it’s fun, but more because shipping is about stuff, and tracking stuff seemed like a far more attractive way of getting a handle on ‘the economy’ than economics statistics, let alone whatever books the Wall Streeters were talking on any given day. And don’t get me started on Larry Summers.

“So what I noticed was decline, and not downward blips followed by rebounds, but decline, for months and then a year. Decline in rail, even when you back out coal and grain, and decline in demand for freight cars. Decline in trucking, and decline in the demand for trucks. Air freight wobbly. No Christmas bounce at the Pacific ports. And now we have the Hanjin debacle — all that capital tied up in stranded ships, though granted only $12 billion or so — and the universal admission that somehow “we” invested w-a-a-a-a-a-y too much money in big ships and boats, implying (I suppose) that we need to ship a lot less stuff than we thought, at least across the oceans.

“Meanwhile, and in seeming contradiction not only to a slow collapse of global trade, but to the opposition to ‘trade deals,’ warehousing is one of the few real estate bright spots, and supply chain management is an exciting field. It’s disproportionately full of sociopaths, and therefore growing and dynamic!

“And the economics statistics seem to say nothing is wrong. Consumers are the engine of the economy and they are confident. But at the end of the day, people need stuff; life is lived in the material world, even if you think you live it on your device. It’s an enigma! So what I’m seeing is a contradiction: Less stuff is moving, but the numbers say ‘this is fine.’ Am I right, here? So in what follows, I’m going to assume that numbers don’t matter, but stuff does.”

Fake Elixir

Or, to be more faux-empirical: as Bloomberg notes in A Weaker Currency is no longer the Elixir, It Once Was:“global central banks have cut policy rates 667 times since 2008, according to Bank of America. During that period, the dollar’s 10 main peers have fallen 14%, yet Group-of-Eight economies have grown an average of just 1%. Since the late 1990s, a 10% inflation-adjusted depreciation in currencies of 23 advanced economies boosted net exports by just 0.6% of GDP, according to Goldman Sachs. That compares with 1.3% of GDP in the two decades prior. U.S. trade with all nations slipped to $3.7 trillion in 2015, from $3.9 trillion in 2014.”


With “growth over,” so too is globalization: Even the Financial Times agrees, as its commentator Martin Wolf writes in his comment, The Tide of Globalisation is Turning: “Globalisation has at best stalled. Could it even go into reverse? Yes. It requires peace among the great powers … Does globalisation’s stalling matter? Yes.”

Globalization is stalling – not because of political tensions (a useful “scapegoat”), but because growth is flaccid as a result of a veritable concatenation of factors causing its arrest – and because we have entered into debt deflation that is squeezing what’s left of discretionary, consumption-available, income. But Wolf is right. Ratcheting tensions with Russia and China will not somehow solve America’s weakening command over the global financial system – even if capital flight to the dollar might give the U.S. financial system a transient “high.”

So what might the “turning tide” of globalization actually mean? Does it mean the end of the neo-liberalist, financialized world? That is hard to say. But expect no rapid “u-turn” – and no apologies. The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 – at the time – was thought by many to mark the end to neo-liberalism. But it never happened – instead, a period of fiscal retrenchment and austerity was imposed that contributed to a deepening distrust of the status quo, and a crisis rooted in a widespread, popular sense that “their societies” were headed in the wrong direction.

Neo-liberalism is deeply entrenched – not least in Europe’s Troika and in the Eurogroup that oversees creditor interests, and which, under European Union rules, has come to dominate E.U. financial and tax policy.

It is too early to say from whence the economic challenge to prevailing orthodoxy will come, but in Russia there is a group of prominent economists gathered together as the Stolypin Club, who are evincing a renewed interest in that old adversary of Adam Smith, Friedrich List (d. 1846), who evolved a “national system of political economy.” List upheld the (differing interests) of the nation to that of the individual. He gave prominence to the national idea, and insisted on the special requirements of each nation according to its circumstances, and especially to the degree of its development. He famously doubted the sincerity of calls to free trade from developed nations, in particular those by Britain. He was, as it were, the arch anti-globalist.

A Post-Globalism

One can see that this might well fit the current post-globalist mood. List’s acceptance of the need for a national industrial strategy and the reassertion of the role of the state as the final guarantor of social cohesion is not some whimsy pursued by a few Russian economists. It is entering the mainstream. The May government in the U.K. precisely is breaking with the neoliberal model that has ruled British politics since the 1980s – and is breaking towards a List-ian approach.


Be that as it may (whether this approach swims more widely back into fashion), the very contemporary British professor and political philosopher, John Gray has suggested the key point is: “The resurgence of the state is one of the ways in which the present time differs from the ‘new times’ diagnosed by Martin Jacques and other commentators in the 1980s. Then, it seemed national boundaries were melting away and a global free market was coming into being. It’s a prospect I never found credible.

“A globalised economy existed before 1914, but it rested on a lack of democracy. Unchecked mobility of capital and labour may raise productivity and create wealth on an unprecedented scale, but it is also highly disruptive in its impact on the lives of working people – particularly when capitalism hits one of its periodic crises. When the global market gets into grave trouble, neoliberalism is junked in order to meet a popular demand for security. That is what is happening today.

“If the tension between global capitalism and the nation state was one of the contradictions of Thatcherism, the conflict between globalization and democracy has undone the left. From Bill Clinton and Tony Blair onwards, the center-left embraced the project of a global free market with an enthusiasm as ardent as any on the right. If globalisation was at odds with social cohesion, society had to be re-engineered to become an adjunct of the market. The result was that large sections of the population were left to moulder in stagnation or poverty, some without any prospect of finding a productive place in society.”

If Gray is correct that when globalized economics strikes trouble, people will demand that the state must pay attention to their own parochial, national economic situation (and not to the utopian concerns of the centralizing élite), it suggests that just as globalization is over – so too is centralization (in all its many manifestations).

The E.U., of course, as an icon of introverted centralization, should sit up, and pay attention. Jason Cowley, the editor of the (Leftist) New Statesman says: “In any event … however you define it, [the onset of ‘New Times’] will not lead to a social-democratic revival: it looks as if, in many Western countries, we are entering an age in which centre-left parties cannot form ruling majorities, having leaked support to nationalists, populists and more radical alternatives.”

The Problem of Self-Delusion

So, to return to Ilargi’s point, that “we are smack in the middle of the most important global development in decades … and I don’t see anybody talking about it. That has me puzzled” and to which he answers that ultimately, the “silence” is due to ourselves: “We think we deserve eternal growth.”


He is surely right that it somehow answers to the Christian meme of linear progress (material here, rather than spiritual); but more pragmatically, doesn’t “growth” underpin the whole Western financialized, global system: “it was about lifting the ‘others’ out of their poverty”?

Recall, Stephen Hadley, the former U.S. National Security Adviser to President George W. Bush,warning plainly that foreign-policy experts rather should pay careful attention to the growing public anger: that “globalization was a mistake” and that “the elites have sleep-walked the [U.S.] into danger.”

“This election isn’t just about Donald Trump,” Hadley argued. “It’s about the discontents of our democracy, and how we are going to address them … whoever is elected, will have to deal with these discontents.”

In short, if globalization is giving way to discontent, the lack of growth can undermine the whole financialized global project. Stiglitz tells us that this has been evident for the past 15 years — last month he noted that he had warned then of: “growing opposition in the developing world to globalizing reforms: It seemed a mystery: people in developing countries had been told that globalization would increase overall wellbeing. So why had so many people become so hostile to it? How can something that our political leaders – and many an economist – said would make everyone better off, be so reviled? One answer occasionally heard from the neoliberal economists who advocated for these policies is that people are better off. They just don’t know it. Their discontent is a matter for psychiatrists, not economists.”

This “new” discontent, Stiglitz now says, is extended into advanced economies. Perhaps this is what Hadley means when he says, “globalization was a mistaalastair-crooke-photoke.” It is now threatening American financial hegemony, and therefore its political hegemony too.

Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat who was a senior figure in British
intelligence and in European Union diplomacy. He is the founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, which advocates for engagement between political Islam and the West.

More on the thermodynamic black hole…

12 10 2016

I recently wrote about the thermodynamic black hole; articles about ERoEI keep popping up in my in tray that truly baffle me…… As Alice Friedemann told Chris Martenson in the podcast I discussed in the aforementioned blog post, “everyone disagrees on what to leave in or out of their ERoEI analyses”….

I was pointed to another blog called Ramez Naam where the following was published…:

There’s a graph making rounds lately showing the comparative EROIs of different electricity production methods. (EROI is Energy Return On Investment – how much energy we get back if we spend 1 unit of energy. For solar this means – how much more energy does a solar panel generate in its lifetime than is used to create it?)

This EROI graph that is making the rounds is being used to claim that solar and wind can’t support an industrialized society like ours.

But its numbers are wildly different from the estimates produced by other peer-reviewed literature, and suffers from some rather extreme assumptions, as I’ll show.

Here’s the graph.


This graph is taken from Weißbach et al, Energy intensities, EROIs, and energy payback times of electricity generating power plants (pdf link). That paper finds an EROI of 4 for solar and 16 for wind, without storage, or 1.6 and 3.9, respectively, with storage. That is to say, it finds that for every unit of energy used to build solar panels, society ultimately gets back 4 units of energy. Solar panels, according to Weißbach, generate four times as much energy over their lifetimes as it takes to manufacture them.

Personally, I think these figures are a bit on the optimistic side, yet the author has a problem with them for being too low…!  Ramez Naam, who was born in Cairo, Egypt, and emigrated to the US at the age of 3 is a computer scientist, futurist, angel investor, and award-winning author, who also worked for Microsoft.  Enough said?  And what on Earth is an angel investor?

Anyhow, he further writes…:

Unfortunately, Weißbach also claims that an EROI of 7 is required to support a society like Europe. I find a number that high implausible for a number of reasons, but won’t address it here.

I’ll let others comment on the wind numbers. For solar, which I know better, this paper is an outlier. Looking at the bulk of the research, it’s more likely that solar panels, over their lifetime, generate 10-15 times as much energy as it takes to produce them and their associated hardware. That number may be as high as 25. And it’s rising over time.

I have seen others, like Susan Krumdieck claim that to keep our complex matrix going, an ERoEI of at least 10 is needed, so it’s interesting that Weißbach aims lower.

What I’d like to know is, how can anyone claim “ it’s rising over time.”?  Last time I looked, all renewables were entirely made using fossil fuels, and their ERoEI is plummeting…

Remember the “Twilight of the age of oil” series published here some time ago? One of the charts in that series of article resurfaced on another blog (through Zerohedge)……

The Coming Thermodynamic Oil Collapse Is Worse Than I Realized

Last week, I spoke with Bedford Hill of the Hills Group about their “Thermodynamic Oil Collapse” model.  What an interesting conversation it was.  Bedford Hill was the project manager of a group of engineers that put over 10,000 hours in designing their Thermodynamic Oil Collapse model.

Bedford told me that after they ran the model, the results were so shocking, they sat on the damn thing for two years before publishing.  I asked him did any of the engineers that worked on the model disagree with the results?  His answer was, “Not a single one disagreed.”

It has taken me some time to digest this new energy information as well understand the details by talking with Bedford Hill and Louis Arnoux of nGeni.  Again, I will be interviewing these gentlemen on this Thermodynamic Oil Collapse model and the implications shortly.

EROI levels

Anyone interested in reading the Hills Group work, you can go to their website, thehillsgroup.org, or check out their detailed report.

The rapidly falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested is gutting the entire U.S. oil industry and economy.  Instead of the United States enjoying real fundamental growth based on increased energy consumption, we have turned to inflating electronic digits as an indication of our wealth.

As I explained in the beginning of the article, U.S. energy consumption has been flat for the past six years, while U.S. GDP has increased nearly 25%, as our supposed net worth has jumped 54%.  Again, this goes against any sound fundamental economic theory.  We have totally removed ourselves from reality.

While the Fed and Central Banks will continue to prop up the markets by printing money and buying bonds and stocks, they can’t print barrels of oil or energy BTU’s.

There lies the Rub…

So I ask…….. how can the ERoEI of anything, let alone solar power, go up, when the primary source of energy to do all those thing, mainly oil, is falling off a cliff?

But wait, there’s more…..   Geoff Chia sent me an email regarding an open letter he sent to the Doomstead Diner in which Louis Arnoux gets mentioned again….  Here’s what Geoff wrote…:

This open letter to The Zeitgeist Movement replaces an essay I originally promised to Diners, “Peak Oil Revisited Part 2: Why business as usual guarantees that global industrial collapse will be complete by 2030”. I have not had the time to elucidate all aspects of my argument in detail and Dr Louis Arnoux is probably doing a better job with his articles on this topic anyway. He is a true energy expert, I am merely a lay person trying to interpret the thoughts of the experts for the general public.

The other “Peak Oil Revisited” essay I promised, “Part 1b: Is an International Standardised Energy Dollar feasible?” has proved to be much more complicated than originally envisioned and is the lowest of my priorities at the moment. Even if an ISED is feasible it is unlikely to ever see the light of day for political reasons.

graph1-theelm-300x226As you know I ran sustainability meetings for doctors and scientists from 2006 to 2013. I note your Zeitgeist group is holding a meeting on sustainability on 10 September 2016. As a starting point for your discussion you may wish to display on your projection screen the letter I wrote earlier this year to “Doctors for the Environment Australia” . When I subsequently met with the Queensland DEA representative, Dr David King, he could not offer any factual or logical objections against my letter. His only comments were that although my views were consistent with those of many scientists, he felt he had to give DEA members “hope”. DEA are operating on the false hope they can fix rampant global warming which has now spiralled out of control. They have completely ignored more immediate energy and economic issues.

graph2-elm-over-netenergy-300x179Energy analyst Dr Louis Arnoux has informed me that world average1 EROI (energy return over invested, or to use the proper mathematical description for this ratio, energy return divided by energy invested) for petroleum fell below 10:1 a few years ago. Dr David Murphy’s figure for world average EROI of 17:1 for 2013 was an overestimate because Murphy himself wrote in his paper (published by the Royal Society) that his figure did not account for the energy costs of fuel refinement and transportation2.

graph3-net-energy-cliff-300x240According to other EROI luminaries, Drs Hall and Lambert3, a ratio of 10:1 is the minimum required for a complex industrial economy to function properly.

Some parts of the industrial world can continue to function at present because they have captured4 the few remaining high EROI (>10:1) sources for themselves. Others areas eg Southern Europe are losing or have lost access to such high net energy sources (“Hi-NES”)5, hence they are now deindustrialising and collapsing. The rest of the world will never industrialise. We have no significant liquid hydrocarbon replacements for conventional petroleum. Unconventional petroleum, with its woeful EROI of 3:1 or less, is an environmentally devastating scam and a stock market Ponzi scheme.

Decline in Hi-NES is the primary reason for the current global economic contraction6, a fact that conventional economists are too venal or too stupid to acknowledge. The present low price of oil is deeply misleading and is hiding the fact that oil has become less affordable/available for most people around the world due to demand destruction and deflation, temporarily freeing up more oil for “lucky” countries such as Australia.

Dr Jeffrey Brown’s export land model (ELM) shows that oil availability for oil importing countries will eventually fall off a cliff (see graph 1 from postpeakliving.com in which I have corrected a caption: the red line shows GROSS world oil production, which does NOT take into account the energy invested in that oil production. Hence the yellow circle is an overestimate of when zero oil will be available to oil importing countries). A more accurate curve on which to superimpose the ELM should be downslope of the Net Hubbert curve as shown in graph 2. Prior to me doing this, I do not believe anyone else has combined ELM and EROI concepts and it is high time someone did so.

A most vital concept to understanding why global industral societies will soon suddenly and catastrophically collapse, just as a teetering Jenga tower suddenly collapses, is the mathematical fact that the net energy available (= energy return minus energy invested) falls off a cliff when EROI declines to 5:1 (see graph 3).

Sudden catastrophic collapse is consistent with the view of Dr Ugo Bardi, one of the original “Limits to Growth” scientists, who calls this phenomenon the “Seneca cliff”. Dr Bardi is an incredibly smart scientist whose dire warnings over many years have been blithely ignored by all the stupid sheeple around him, hence he titled his blog “Cassandra’s Legacy”.

In human terms, plummeting EROI in the absence of any plan to transition to a post carbon lifestyle, will mean social breakdown, war, starvation7and mass die off on a monumental scale. No part of the world which depends on petroleum will be spared.

We can understand why TPTB promote false hopes for the future to the clueless sheeple, using extravagant bread and circuses like the Olympics. Such theatrics keep the herd distracted and subdued. Be assured that once the masses revolt, the drones will be deployed.

On the other hand, offering intelligent people false hope for the future is in my view deeply inappropriate, especially if useful measures can be taken right now to mitigate impending hardships. Unfortunately the window of opportunity is closing fast. What is your transition plan?

You may vehemently reject my warnings and choose to ignore this letter because everything seems “fine” to you now, however denial will not make a looming catastrophe magically disappear.

One of your previous speakers promoted manned space travel to Mars. How useful, do you think, is that sort of meeting?


Geoffrey Chia, August 2016

IF you like further homework, I found some most interesting links on that SRSrocco website, including videos called the Hidden Secrets of Money made by Mike Maloney who was interviewed by Chris Martenson, and another articles on the collapse of the USA through analysing  its disintegrating infrastructure…..

It’s raining here, still, and I may go to the Community House to watch the hidden secrets of money there before I run out of bandwidth……


Geoff Chia’s footnotes


  1. Global “average” EROI of below 10:1 at present means that most oil fields now yield EROI below 10:1 (eg perhaps only 8:1 or 6:1). However there are a few oil fields which continue to yield a high EROI (eg perhaps 20:1), oil fields which the vultures are now circling.

  2. Murphy DJ. 2014 The implications of the declining energy return on investment of oil production. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372: 20130126.

  3. Lambert, Jessica G., Hall Charles A. S. et al. 2014. Energy, EROI and quality of life. Energy Policy 64:153–167 “There is evidence…that once payments for energy rise above a certain threshold at the national level (e.g. approximately 10 percent in the United States) that economic recessions follow. “

  4. Such capture can be accomplished by fair means (eg providing useful products to the oil vendors in exchange for their oil), or foul (eg the criminal protection racket known as the Petrodollar).

  5. Being starved of credit

  6. In China, intolerable pollution has been a major factor for their economic slowdown, as well as the marked reduction in overseas demand for their industrial output

  7. Mass agriculture is crucially dependent on petroleum (also natural gas)

Another silver bullet bites the dust….

10 10 2016

A recent article in the Guardian explains why scientists now believe that soil’s potential to soak up climate changing carbon dioxide has been overestimated by as much as 40%….

Hopes that large amounts of planet-warming carbon dioxide could be buried in soils appear to be grossly misplaced, with new research finding that the ground will soak up far less carbon over the coming century than previously thought.

Radiocarbon dating of soils, when combined with previous models of carbon uptake, has shown the widely assumed potential for carbon sequestration to combat climate change has been overestimated by as much as 40%.

Scientists from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) found that models used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assume a much faster cycling of carbon through soils than is actually the case. Data taken from 157 soil samples taken from around the world show the average age of soil carbon is more than six times older than previously thought.


Mark Cochrane

Mark Cochrane, our resident climate scientist, recently picked up on this at Chris Martenson’s Peak prosperity blog and wrote the following……?

The article points again to the problems with global models of climate change. Those who generally complain about ‘models’ usually do so to try to imply that they are wrong and that this therefore means that they are overstating climate change. The fact of the matter is that although they are ‘wrong’, the errors, in principle, are just as likely to understate as overstate the situation. In reality, the science tends to be conservative, as scientists are usually constrained to using what is statistically defensible for many of the parameters within their models, so the likelihood of understating known issues (e.g. ice sheet collapses) is greater than substantially overstating them, which is why the vast majority of new findings point out that climate change is progressing faster than we have been estimating.

The famous quote by George Box “All models are wrong, but some are useful” nicely sums up the state of things. Much of what we do in this world is based on our internal modeling, some of which is of high accuracy, “the sun comes up every morning”, and other ideas somewhat less so,  “I’m a safe driver so driving is not risky”. Weather models are notoriously inaccurate but we find quite a lot of utility in consulting them anyway. They may not be absolutely ‘right’ but they are usually reasonably close to the ultimate conditions. Climate models have multitudinous components but their ultimate function basically boils down to calculating the balance between sources and sinks of carbon in the atmosphere, then estimating what the ramifications are of the net changes in type and amounts of the so-called greenhouse gases.

Sources are emissions from things like burning fossil fuels, and positive feedbacks like melting permafrost that releases a portion of the carbon stock, that has literally been frozen in place for millennia, to the atmosphere as the climate warms. Sinks are things like ocean uptake of carbon as higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations force the gas into the water, like occurs in your soda bottle or beer can. Negative feedbacks are those that ultimately bring the system back into balance after excessive emissions and include things like plants soaking up carbon and ultimately depositing some of it for long term storage in soils, in addition to transformation of silicate rocks to carbonate rocks as mountains erode and deposit sediments into the sea, soaking up atmospheric carbon in the process.

As I have mentioned before, the existence of a positive or negative feedback is only part of the story, we also need to know the rate at which it proceeds and ultimately how long it might continue. If you put a match to a high concentration of an explosive gas (say hydrogen) the positive feedback of energy release from a few molecules transferring energy to the proximate molecules will proceed very rapidly but not for very long before the process runs its course in the explosion. On the other hand, eroding the Himalayan mountains down to sea level will soak up immense amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere but will take millions of years to accomplish.

All of which is providing context for what the He et  al. (2016) paper is saying. Soil carbon is a catch all term for many chemical compounds in soils that have carbon as a component. This makes the ‘organic’ component of soils. If you are modeling the rate at which carbon can get soaked up by soils you need to know the processes involved and calibrate them using parameters that balance the rates at which carbon enters and leaves the soil. What the new research is showing is that the current Earth Systems Models (ESMs – components of Global Climate Models – GCMs) currently underestimate the age of organic materials (carbon) in existing soils which effectively means that they overestimate the rate at which carbon is likely to be sequestered through plant growth/soil formation in the future. The upshot being that the models are currently estimating that soils will soak up potentially twice as much carbon between now and 2100 as seems likely. If the carbon isn’t getting soaked up it means that it could pile up in the atmosphere for longer than presently estimated and act to warm the planet more than currently projected.

As in all scientific matters, these results will be tested by other scientists and either be verified, refuted or refined. So what does it signify if this is correct? The soil component is only one pool among many but the net fluxes are what matters in the climate situation. For example:

With a Net Terrestrial Uptake of 3.0, the findings could indicate that this should be better described as 1.5-2.0. This could conceivably move the net atmospheric increase from 4.0 to 5.0 or so, a 25% increase. Non trivial. That said, what it probably means is that existing errors in other components of the modeling are either partially overstating emissions or global photosynthesis or understating net oceanic uptake. Therefore, instead of a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon there would be a smaller compounding increase between now and 2100, how small is the question. Future studies will be aimed at teasing these interacting components apart.

White man’s magic……

8 10 2016

20160418_163158Now that our power station has been commissioned, is actually powering stuff, and because it’s been an evolutionary thing over many months, I’ve decided to chronicle how our rather unique stand alone power system is built in one post, for the benefit of all mankind…. as it were!

The solar power is generated by eight 260W monocrystaline photovoltaic panels, for a 20161008_131339total of 2080 Watts. They are mounted on a custom made steel frame, installed by the first wwoofer I had working for me here… They are connected in two strings of four with each string producing 1000W at 150V DC maximum. The two pairs of wires are fed underground and through the container’s floor in that orange conduit, to the DC circuit box where two 20 Amp circuit breakers protect the system against short circuits or serious malfunctions. Each circuit breaker is dipole, and simultaneously breaks both the positive and negative circuits.


DC Circuits

From this box, the solar power is fed to the MidNite Classic Maximum Power Point Tracker. This magic black box manipulates the incoming electricity so that it is fed into the batteries at the optimum voltage/amperage combination needed to maximise the amount of energy fed into the batteries to keep them charged. I had never used one of these before, but they are well worth the $900 , because it does all sorts of other tricks, like boost charging, battery equalising, floating, and even monitors the amount of energy fed into the batteries, logging all that information where it can be accessed later…… If I decide to later add a wind turbine, I will get a second one to control its output.

The power going into the batteries (and out of them for powering things with the inverter) go through a fuse box with two 160A slow burn fuses. Batteries are capable of producing spectacular amounts of current (think big sparks and fire!) and in the unlikely event of something seriously bad happening to the batteries, these fuses will burn and save the rest of the system. The fuse box is also designed such that it can be used to disconnect the batteries from everything else in an emergency, or for maintenance. There’s one fuse for the positive cable, and one victronfor the negative……

Once charged, the energy contained within the batteries can be extracted back out (through the aforementioned fusebox) by the Victron inverter, which converts the 48V (nominal) DC from the batteries into 230V AC for powering all the things we take for granted in houses, like lights, fridges, TVs and washing machines etc……

This inverter has now had its settings altered to operate at between 64V and 37.5V. It’s because Victrons can be reprogrammed to do this that I opted for this technology, as the Nickel Iron batteries are able to work safely at an even greater voltage range. The blue digital voltmeter is something I added to the inverter to get an instant readout of the battery bank’s voltage.

Just as there is a series of safety devices on the DC side of the system, the AC sector is also wired up to protect the wiring and the people using the electricity!

acsectorBefore going into the AC circuit box, I wired in an old energy meter I have had for years to monitor how much energy we will be consuming in the house (as well as outside to pump water for the gardens etc…). I used to use it for doing energy audits, and they sure don’t make them like this anymore…!

The 230V output is split into three, with another dipole circuit breaker (one for the active and one for the neutral) taking power to where the house will be built, currently permanently switched off. Another 10A circuit breaker takes current to a power point inside the container for running the freezer and charging cordless tool batteries (so far), while a 15A breaker takes power to an external 15A all weather power point outside the container where I currently plug the new pump in (more about this in a later post).

The two power points are protected with safety switches which are now built into the circuit breakers. It’s amazing how fast technology changes/improves these days….

The battery bank consists of forty 1.2V Nickel Iron cells (to make the nominal 48V). You can read about why I selected this battery chemistry here……

The container is earthed with a copper stake, and everything involved in this system is also earthed through the steel container itself, one advantage of having a steel building! The safety switches test just fine, the whole system is very safe. To vent the potentially explosive hydrogen gas that bubbles from the batteries, two whirlybird extractors were put into the container’s roof, and six vents at floor level on the western end of the container were also added. It’s where the wind usually comes from, and it will no doubt assist in keeping everything cool, even in summer….


Floor level air vents


batterybankI’m really stoked at how well it’s all working. Even on really rainy days, the solar array was able to feed 4.7kWh of energy into the battery bank, and even on the very worst day when the sky was inky black and it just poured all day long, 1.7kWh was absorbed by the batteries, almost enough to power our old house for a whole day…. The design electricity consumption for the new house is 2kWh/day, though at this stage it’s still unknown how much energy I will need to pump water for the market garden.

I’m finding adjusting to the NiFe batteries a little tricky. Unlike conventional Lead Acid batteries, these prefer to be worked hard. I’m told by people who run them that the harder you cycle them, the more capacity they build up, and the longer they last between electrolyte replacement. Because I’m (so far) only pulling 0.9kWh/day out of them with the freezer, the batteries haven’t been worked enough. So I recently turned the solar power completely off for eight or nine days, just to ‘flatten’ them. They were fully charged again within two days…. Nickel Iron batteries, unlike the other technologies sold everywhere, can be ‘flattened’ as often as you like….. you just need to always make sure there’s enough left to start the freezer again, or else lose the contents!

Now the container sports a 1000 litre IBC for gravity fed water storage….. but you’ll have to wait for the next installment.


The Trouble with Permaculture

4 10 2016

With the recent passing of Bill Mollison, much has been published on the interweb about Permaculture; While Glenda was here for nine days, I didn’t spend much time at this laptop, preferring to help her set her own stamp on the Fanny Farm and using her very able gardening skills to get stuck into some planting…. and fixing the goose tractor in readiness for the acquisition of more birds, but there will be time for that some place else on this site.

Having published Samuel Alexander’s epitaph for Bill Mollison by merely copying and pasting the Conversation article, I didn’t bother following the links therein; luckily, Greg Bell did, and posted a couple in a comment he left here, many thanks Greg…. as he says in his comment, “Those two “here” links to critiques of permaculture are the two most important things I’ve read all year (and they, in turn, link to even more)……

The first link is to Resilience.org and bears the same title as this entry. Fascinating reading indeed, as are the comments below it.