The end is near?

31 03 2012

The closer we get to “the end”, the less those in power appear to be doing anything about it.  They want you to believe they’re onto it, but nothing could be further from the truth.

At the last Permaculture Noosa meeting I attended, a Sunshine Coast Regional Council chap did a Peak Oil presentation, explaining what it is, what it means for the citizens of the Council, and what they are going to do about it.

The explanation of Peak Oil I thought was on the money, but then we were exposed to the usual tedium of how a large quasi government institution goes about getting the wheels in motion…. on what I believe is flawed data to boot!

Last year alone, Australia’s oil production (hate that word, we don’t “produce” oil, we extract it..) fell by a gobsmacking 26.6%.  No, not a typo, twenty six point six percent.  Go to the link, and you will find a spreadheet.  From what I read, panic is starting to set in in the UK because their depletion rate is reaching 17.5%, but no, nothing like that here, who cares?

After the meeting, I fronted this chap and asked him did he know what Australia’s depletion rate was, and with gleaming eyes proudly said “yes of course”, reaching under the table to produce a report (which Council has kindly produced on CD for me to lift charts from!) and pointed to this graph:

OK, to start with, even this graph is bad news… the orange consumption line just keeps rising as the P90 line keeps falling, while the P50 and P10 “production” magically rose last year… WHICH WE NOW KNOW NEVER HAPPENED!  In fact, the P90 line fell much faster than even my black line….

For the uninitiated, the three coloured scenarios are called P10, P50, and P90.  Which means Probability of 90%, etc…

The P10 line (the high one) is pure fantasy.  The P50 is pure Hopium, and the P90 is bullshit.  Today’s production is already well below any of those predictions, which to me look just like ABARE’s, year after year after year of totally flawed predictions that never came true, like this:

And this is the reason why I believe the end is near… complete unpreparedness.

That black trendline by the way is my prediction…

We now have a new Premier in Queensland who, to my face (and two other witnesses) told me some years back when he was still Mayor of Brisbane, we would be driving cars into the future even if we have to “burn old tyres and carpets”. Earlier this week I had the misfortune of going to Brisbane, which then Mayor of Brisbane has totally ruined with spaghetti like overpasses and freeway on/off ramps and hugely expensive tunnels I cannot make any sense of, so poor is the signage…  He obviously really believes in “burning old tyres and carpets”, and I hope as Premier Campbell Newman will hoard lots and lots of them, because it won’t be too much longer before we face $2+ a litre fuel and/or shortages…. and we sure as hell will need those “old tyres and carpets”!

Such unbelievable shortsightedness is just unfathomable.

Time to build an ark….

21 03 2012

The weather’s starting to freak me out.  We’ve had so much rain, I’m beginning to think I should build an ark instead of finishing the house!  The normal annual rainfall here is around 1200mm a year, and we must be close to having copped all of that and it’s not even the end of the third month of 2012…..  were the Mayans right after all? The age of the internet has allowed us all sorts of neat hi-tech possibilities, like being able to monitor flood gauges.  We have such a gauge here in Cooran on our Six Mile Creek (I’ve always wondered why they call creeks like this… it’s much more than six miles long, and which part of it is six miles from which town anyway?) Late on Friday February 25, an absolute deluge came down upon our neck of the woods, 318mm in two and a half hours!  That’s over a foot for all you Americans…  I often monitor the flood gauge, but never have I seen it go skywards as it did this time, the creek came up 4.5m (14 feet) in just three hours, and then just kept going up until late morning the following day.  Like this (you may have to click on the image to get a clearer view): Needless to say we were cut off from civilisation, a cause to celebrate!  It was the biggest flood since we’ve lived here, and by all accounts, probably the second biggest ever.

Our only way out…..

Water water everywhere…

But wait…..  there’s MORE!!  Just eight days later, it was on again, though not quite as bad… and now, just two weeks later, it looks like we’re in for it again, at the current rate of rise, the Six Mile will have us cut off again by 9PM tonight.  Not that I care, we’re stocked up with food, and not exactly short of water!  The tanks currently overflow at the sight of clouds……  but I am fed up with all this wet weather, the garden’s just keeling over from wet feet, and just tending the chickens is a pain, wading through all that mud.  The goats refuse to go outside in this weather and will have to be hand fed again.  And then there’s the grass…..  that grass the previous occupiers of this land planted as fodder for the dairy cows that grows at a hundred miles an hour and can’t be mown because the mower would simply get bogged the instant you drive it out there. I’m over it….  it’s times like this Tasmania REALLY beckons…

The Earth is Full

2 03 2012

Just found this great video from TED dot com.  Paul Gilding is one of my Australian heroes, and everything he says here is EXACTLY how I feel about things, as I turn 60 on Wednesday…..  Time is now ebbing fast, the time to get ready was yesterday, I hope you’re into it.

And make sure you share this video far and wide….