The Bumpy Road Down, Part 5: More Trends in Collapse

21 02 2018

IrvMillsIrv Mills has published the fifth and last part of his 5 part series called ‘The Bumpy Road Down’, previous instalments being available here.

 

 

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In my last post I started talking about some of the changes that will happen along the bumpy road down and the forces and trends that will lead to them. (The bumpy road down being the cyclic pattern of crash and partial recovery that I believe will characterize the rest of the age of scarcity). These changes will be forced on us by circumstances and are not necessarily how I’d like to see things turn out.

The trends I covered last time were:

  • our continued reliance on fossil fuels
  • the continuing decline in availability, and surplus energy content, of fossil fuels
  • the damage the FIRE industries (finance, insurance and real estate) will suffer in the next crash, and the effects this will have
  • the increase in authoritarianism, as governments attempt to optimize critical systems and relief efforts during and after the crash

Oscillating overshoot with declining carrying capacity

I’ve once again included the stepped or “oscillating” decline diagram from previous posts here to make it easier to visualize what I’m talking about. This diagram isn’t meant to be precise, certainly not when it comes to the magnitude and duration of the oscillations, which in any case will vary from one part of the world to the next.

The trends I want to talk about today are all interconnected. You can hardly discuss one without referring to the others, and so it is difficult to know where to start. But having touched briefly on a trend toward increased authoritarianism at the end of my last post, I guess I should continue trends in politics.

MORE POLITICAL TRENDS

Currently there seems to be a trend towards right wing politics in the developed world. I think anyone who extrapolates that out into the long run is making a basic mistake. Where right wing governments have been elected by those looking for change, they will soon prove to be very inept at ruling in an era of degrowth. Following that, there will likely be a swing in the other direction and left wing governments will get elected. Only to prove, in their turn, to be equally inept. Britain seems to be heading in this direction, and perhaps the U.S. as well.

Another trend is the sort of populism that uses other nations, and/or racial, ethnic, religious and sexual minorities at home as scapegoats for whatever problems the majority is facing. This strategy is and will continue to be used by clever politicians to gain support and deflect attention from their own shortcomings. Unfortunately, it leads nowhere since the people being blamed aren’t the source of the problem.

During the next crash and following recovery governments will continue to see growth as the best solution to whatever problems they face and will continue to be blind to the limits to growth. Farther down the bumpy road some governments may finally clue in about limits. Others won’t, and this will fuel continued growth followed by crashes until we learn to live within those limits.

One thing that seems clear is that eventually we’ll be living in smaller groups and the sort of political systems that work best will be very different from what we have now.

Many people who have thought about this assume that we’ll return to feudalism. I think that’s pretty unlikely. History may seem to repeat itself, but only in loose outline, not in the important details. New situations arise from different circumstances, and so are themselves different. Modern capitalists would never accept the obligations that the feudal aristocracy had to the peasantry. Indeed freeing themselves of those obligations had a lot to do with making capitalism work. And the “99%” (today’s peasantry) simply don’t accept that the upper classes have any right, divine or otherwise, to rule.

In small enough groups, with sufficient isolation between groups, people seem best suited to primitive communism, with essentially no hierarchy and decision making by consensus. I think many people will end up living in just such situations.

In the end though, there will still be a few areas with sufficient energy resources to support larger and more centralized concentrations of population. It will be interesting to see what new forms of political structure evolve in those situations.

ECONOMIC CONTRACTION

For the last couple of decades declining surplus energy has caused contraction of the real economy. Large corporations have responded in various ways to maintain their profits: moving industrial operations to developing countries where wages are lower and regulations less troublesome, automating to reduce the amount of expensive labour required, moving to the financial and information sectors of the economy where energy decline has so far had less effect.

The remaining “good” industrial jobs in developed nations are less likely to be unionized, with longer hours, lower pay, decreased benefits, poorer working conditions and lower safety standards. The large number of people who can’t even get one of those jobs have had to move to precarious, part time, low paying jobs in the service industries. Unemployment has increased (despite what official statistics say) and the ranks of the homeless have swelled.

Since workers are also consumers, all this has led to further contraction of the consumer economy. We can certainly expect to see this trend continue and increase sharply during the next crash.

Our globally interconnected economy is a complex thing and that complexity is expensive to maintain. During the crash and the depression that follows it, we’ll see trends toward simplification in many different areas driven by a lack of resources to maintain the existing complex systems. I’ll be discussing those trends in a moment, but it is important to note that a lot of economic activity is involved in maintaining our current level of complexity and abandoning that complexity will mean even more economic contraction.

At the same time, small, simple communities will prove to have some advantages that aren’t currently obvious.

CONSERVATION

All this economic contraction means that almost all of us will be significantly poorer and we’ll have to learn to get by with less. As John Michael Greer says, “LESS: less energy, less stuff, less stimulation.” We’ll be forced to conserve and will struggle to get by with “just enough”. This will be a harshly unpleasant experience for most people.

DEGLOBALIZATION

For the last few decades globalization has been a popular trend, especially among the rich and powerful, who are quick to extol its many supposed advantages. And understandably so, since it has enabled them to maintain their accustomed high standard of living while the economy as a whole contracts.

On the other hand, as I was just saying, sending high paying jobs offshore is a pretty bad idea for consumer economies. And I suspect that in the long run we’ll see that it wasn’t really all that good for the countries where we sent the work, either.

During the crash we’ll see the breakdown of the financial and organizational mechanisms that support globalization and international trade. There will also be considerable problems with shipping, both due to disorganization and to unreliable the supplies of diesel fuel for trucks and bunker fuel for ships. I’m not predicting an absolute shortage of oil quite this soon, but rather financial and organizational problems with getting it out of the ground, refined and moved to where it is needed.

This will lead to the failure of many international supply chains and governments and industry will be forced to switch critical systems over to more local suppliers. This switchover will be part of what eventually drives a partial recovery of the economy in many localities.

In a contracting economy with collapsing globalization there would seem to be little future for multi-national corporations, and organizations like the World Bank and the IMF. While the crash may bring an end to the so called “development” of the “developing” nations, it will also bring an end to economic imperialism. At the same time, the general public in the developed world, many of whom are already questioning the wisdom of the “race to the bottom” that is globalization, will be even less likely to go along with it, especially when it comes to exporting jobs.

Still, when the upcoming crash bottoms out and the economy begins to recover, there will be renewed demand for things that can only be had from overseas and international trade will recover to some extent.

DECENTRALIZATION

Impoverished organizations such a governments, multi-national corporations and international standards groups will struggle to maintain today’s high degree of centralization and eventually will be forced to break up into smaller entities.

Large federations such as Europe, the US, Canada and Australia will see rising separatism and eventually secession. As will other countries where different ethnic groups have been forced together and/or there is long standing animosity between various localities. If this can be done peacefully it may actually improve conditions for the citizens of the areas involved, who would no longer have to support the federal organization. But no doubt it will just as often involve armed conflict, with all the destruction and suffering that implies.

RELOCALIZATION

The cessation of services from the FIRE industries and the resulting breakdown of international (and even national) supply and distribution chains will leave many communities with no choice but to fend for themselves.

One of the biggest challenges at first will be to get people to believe that there really is a problem. Once that is clear, experience has shown that the effectiveness of response from the victims of disasters is remarkable and I think that will be true again in this case. There are a lot of widely accepted myths about how society breaks down during disaster, but that’s just what they are: myths. Working together in groups for our mutual benefit is the heart of humanity’s success, after all.

Government response will take days or more likely weeks to organize, and in the meantime there is much we can do to help ourselves. Of course it helps to be prepared… (check out these posts from the early days of this blog: 12) and I’ll have more to say on that in upcoming posts.

The question then arises whether one would be better off in an urban center or a rural area such as a small town or a farm. Government relief efforts will be focused on the cities where the need will be greatest and the response easiest to organize. But just because of the millions of people involved, that response will be quite challenging.

Rural communities may well be largely neglected by relief efforts. But, especially in agricultural areas, they will find fending for themselves much more manageable.

I live in a rural municipality with a population of less than 12,000 people in an area of over 200 square miles (60 people per sq. mile, more than 10 acres per person). The majority of the land is agricultural, and supply chains are short, walking distance in many cases. Beef, dairy and cash crops are the main agricultural activities at present and they can easily be diverted to feed the local population. Especially if the food would go to waste anyway due to the breakdown of supply chains downstream from the farm.

So I think we’re likely to do fairly well until the government gets around to getting in touch with us again, probably sometime after the recovery begins.

In subsequent crashes the population will be significantly reduced and those of us who survive will find ourselves living for the most part in very small communities which are almost entirely relocalized. The kind of economy that works in that situation is very different from what we have today and is concerned with many things other than growth and profit making.

REHUMANIZATION

The move toward automation that we’ve seen in the developed world since the start of the industrial revolution has been driven by high labour costs and the savings to be had by eliminating labour from industrial processes as much as possible. That revolution started and proceeded at greatest speed in Britain where labour rates where the highest, and still hasn’t happened in many developing nations where labour is very cheap.

Sadly, the further impoverishment of the working class in Europe and North America will make cheaper labour available locally, rather than having to go offshore. During the upcoming crash, and in the depression following it, impoverished people will have no choice but to work for lower rates and will out compete automated systems, especially when capital to set them up, the cutting edge technology needed to make them work, and the energy to power them are hard to come by. Again, the economic advantages of simplicity will come into play when it is the only alternative, and help drive the recovery after the first crash.

THE FOOD SUPPLY AND OVERPOPULATION

In the initial days of the coming crash there will be problems with the distribution systems for food, medical supplies and water treatment chemicals, all of which are being supplied by “just in time” systems with very little inventory at the consumer end of the supply chain. To simplify this discussion, I’ll talk primarily about food.

It is often said that there is only a 3 day supply of food on the grocery store shelves. I am sure this is approximately correct. In collapse circles, the assumption is that, if the trucks stop coming, sometime not very far beyond that 3 day horizon we’d be facing starvation. There may be a few, incredibly unlucky, areas where that will be more or less true.

But, depending on the time of year, much more food than that (often more than a year’s worth) is stored elsewhere in the food production and distribution system. The problem will be in moving this food around to where it is needed, and in making sure another year’s crops get planted and harvested. I think this can be done, much of it through improvisation and co-operation by people in the agricultural and food industries. With some support from various levels of government.

There will be some areas where food is available more or less as normal, some where the supply is tight, and other areas where there is outright famine and some loss of life (though still outstripped by the fecundity of the human race). In many ways that pretty much describes the situation today but supply chain breakdown, and our various degrees of success at coping with it, will make all the existing problems worse during the crash.

But once the initial crash is over, we have a much bigger problem looming ahead, which I think will eventually lead to another, even more serious crash.

With my apologies to my “crunchy” friends, modern agriculture and the systems downstream from it supply us with the cheapest and safest food that mankind has known since we were hunters and gatherers and allows us (so far) to support an ever growing human population.

The problem is that this agriculture is not sustainable. It requires high levels of inputs–primarily energy from fossil fuels, but also pesticides, fertilizers and water for irrigation–mostly from non-renewable sources. And rather than enriching the soil on which it depends, it gradually consumes it, causing erosion from over cultivation and over grazing, salinating the soil where irrigation is used and poisoning the water courses downstream with runoff from fertilizers. We need to develop a suite of sustainable agricultural practices that takes advantage of the best agricultural science can do for us, while the infrastructure that supports that science is still functioning.

The organic industry spends extravagantly to convince us that the problem with our food is pesticide residues and genetically engineered organisms, but the scientific consensus simply does not support this. The organic standards include so called “natural” pesticides that are more toxic than modern synthetic ones, and allow plant breeding techniques (such as mutagenesis) that are far more dangerous than modern genetic engineering. Organic standards could certainly be revised into something sustainable that retains the best of both conventional and organic techniques, but this has become such a political hot potato that it is unlikely to happen.

As I said above, during the upcoming crash one of the main challenges will be to keep people fed. And I have no doubt that this challenge will, for the most part, be successfully met. Diesel fuel will be rationed and sent preferentially to farmers and trucking companies moving agricultural inputs and outputs. Supplies of mineral fertilizers are still sufficient to keep industrial agriculture going. Modern pesticides actually reduce the need for cultivation and improve yields by reducing losses due to pests. It will be possible to divert grains grown for animal feed to feed people during the first year when the crisis is most serious.

Industrial agriculture will actually save the day and continue on to feed the growing population for a while yet. We will continue to make some improvement in techniques and seeds, though with diminishing returns on our efforts.

This will come to an end around mid century with the second bump on the road ahead (starting at point “g” on the graph), when a combination of increasing population, worsening climate, and decreasing availability and increasing prices of energy, irrigation water, fertilizer, pesticides and so forth combine to drastically reduce the output of modern agriculture.

Widespread famine will result, and this, combined with epidemics in populations weakened by hunger, will reduce the planet’s human population by at least a factor of two in a period of a very few years. Subsequent bumps as climate change further worsens conditions for farming will further reduce the population, resulting in a bottleneck towards the end of this century. Without powered machinery, synthetic fertilizers and pesticides and with drastically reduced water for irrigation, agricultural output will fall off considerably. And our population will fall to match the availability of food. I do think it unlikely that the human race will be wiped out altogether, but our numbers will likely be reduced by a factor of ten or more.

TURNING TO VIOLENCE AS A SOLUTION

It is a sad fact that many people, communities and nations, when faced with the sort of challenges I’ve been talking about here, will respond with violence.

In the remaining years leading up to the next crash, I think it is likely that even the least stable of world leaders (or their military advisors) will remain well aware of the horrific consequences of large scale nuclear war, and will manage to avoid it. As has been the case since the end of WWII, wars will continue to be fought by proxy, involving smaller nations in the developing world, especially where the supply of strategic natural resources are at issue.

War is extremely expensive though and, even without the help of a financial crash, military spending already threatens to bankrupt the U.S. As Dmitry Orlov has suggested, after a financial crash, the U.S. may find it difficult to even get its military personnel home from overseas bases, much less maintain those bases or pursue international military objectives.

But even in the impoverished post-crash world, I expect that border wars, terrorism, riots and violent protests will continue for quite some time yet.

MIGRATION AND REFUGEES

Whether from the ravages of war, climate change or economic contraction many areas of the world, particularly in areas like the Middle East, North Africa and the U.S. southwest, will become less and less livable. People will leave those areas looking for greener pastures and the number of refugees will soon grow past what can be managed even by the richest of nations. This will be a problem for Europe in particular, and more and more borders will be closed to all but a trickle of migrants. Refugees will accumulate in camps and for a while the situation will find an uneasy balance.

As we continue down the bumpy road, though, many nations will lose the ability to police their borders. Refugees will pour through, only to find broken economies that offer them little hope of a livelihood. Famine, disease and conflict will eventually reduce the population to where it can be accommodated in the remaining livable areas. But the ethnic makeup of those areas will have changed significantly due to large scale migrations.

IN CONCLUSION

I’ve been talking here about some of the changes that will be forced upon us by the circumstances of collapse. I’ve said very little about what I think we might do if we could face up to the reality of those circumstances and take positive action. That’s because I don’t think there is much chance that we’ll take any such action on a global or even national scale.

It’s time now to wrap up this series of posts about the bumpy road down. At some point in the future I intend to do a series about of coping with collapse locally, on the community, family and individual level. I think there is still much than can be done to improve the prospects of those who are willing to try.

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Why I chose Nickel Iron Batteries……

13 03 2016

When I first started spruiking the long life capability of Nickel Iron batteries, I quoted an internet source that claimed these had actually lasted 100 years and were still going. Such claims are of course difficult to check, but then, out of the blue, this paper written by Peter J. DeMar from Battery Research and Testing Inc, Oswego, NY, USA turned up on my FaceBook page…..  never belittle FB for anything, it’s how you use it that matters, not how other people do…!

I put the above link to that paper on my last NiFe battery post, but then thought this was so significant, it needed airing properly here.

This all but forgotten technology has a very important place to occupy with users that desire very long life and the ability to suffer abuse in their battery systems, especially in a post collapse world where buying replacement batteries will be nigh impossible.

My son the scientist was so impressed with this, and as he will be in charge of looking after this system after I’m long gone, he googled how to make the Potassium Hydroxide electrolyte, and contacted me to say it was a piece of cake, and, that apple wood is among the best to make lye!

EDIT: Since writing this post, I have gone to a biochar workshop where I learned how to make lye. Our battery system is also up and running, and you can see it here.

Read on…….

Abstract

This paper is going to look at real life aged 80+ year old Nickel-Iron cells that are still functional and will explain the simple recovery techniques that were documented in an original Edison Alkaline Storage Battery brochure from the 1920’s. Some of the cells had been charged intermittently, many had sat off charge for many years, and some had sat off charge and all but empty, but all made very substantial recoveries, and when subjected to discharge testing that followed the guidelines of the IEEE 1115 they all were able to pass load tests at their applicable rate.
I. INTRODUCTION
The aim of this paper is to introduce this very old battery technology, which is over 100 years old, to those that have no idea that such a battery exists, or ever did exist. The majority of us are most familiar with various forms of lead acid, or nickel-cadmium as they were and still are the batteries of choice for most stationary applications, with Lithium Ion (in various forms) and other technologies gaining acceptance in many stationary applications. The cells that are reported on in this paper are real life aged
cells with an average age of 85 years, and the conditions that they were operated in and stored in were less than ideal. They spent the last approximately 60 years in a wooden shed, at a hunting lodge in the Adirondack Mountains, with temperatures from below -18C to above 32C. They were charged intermittently and often sat in a partial or full discharged state for weeks or months or years, at a time. Their function was to provide lighting to the lodge.

Waldemar Jungner of Sweden created the first Nickel-Iron battery in the late 1890’s and has multiple patents on the design. However he found that by substituting Cadmium
instead of Iron that he could improve the performance and efficiency of the cells, and he abandoned the development of the Nickel-Iron cell in favor of Nickel-Cadmium. There are
two patents for the Ni-Fe technology and one for the Ni-Cd technology in his name from 1899.

Thomas Edison believed that Ni-Fe could displace lead acid as the battery of choice and in 1901 obtained both a US and a European patent for his version of the technology. Edison
performed some very extensive testing on his cell designs to verify their hardiness for usage in RR applications, or electric automobiles (which he thought would replace internal
combustion engines), or material handling (tuggers and such). Two of my favorite tests that he created to demonstrate the durability of his Ni-Fe batteries are as follows.
He mounted a battery system on a cart and then the cart was rammed into a brick wall at 15 MPH and the battery had to survive 1,000 such shocks, which it did. My favorite test
though was where he hooked a cell to a motor driven pendulum and the device raised the cell 1⁄2” and dropped the cell onto a wooden platform. The cell survived 1, 776,000 such drops and then following that it passed a load test. (1) The Thomas Edison battery factory in West Orange New Jersey USA produced cells from 1903 to 1972 when it was sold to the Exide Battery Company (name at that time), which continued production until 1975 when the factory was closed.

Presently there are two companies that are still manufacturing Ni-Fe cells and they are Kursk Accumulator in Russia, and ChangHong Battery in China. It is our belief that this very old technology still has a place in the current market, where the user has a need for a very long life battery that can stand frequent cycling and abusive conditions. In America these are being offered for usage in the off grid market due to their long life and ability to withstand the daily repeated cycling, and setting in a partial state of  discharge for extended periods.

II. THE BOAST
It has been stated that Thomas Edison boasted of a 100 year battery with his Nickel-Iron design, but I have not been able to successfully locate those exact words. Now that sounds like a pretty bold marketing statement, sort of like the original marketing words “Maintenance Free” when referring to VRLA cells. However our experience in testing these old Nickel Iron cells convinced us that it may not have been just boldness or
marketing on his part.

III. THE OPPORTUNITY TO PROVE OR DISPROVE
picture2As can be seen in the following picture of the three different cell sizes the two on the left are the A4H and the A8H, and the one on the right is an A8 cell. With our gaining access to a substantial number of Thomas Edison Alkaline cells in two different amp hour sizes (150 and 300AH) at the five hour rate, we had an opportunity to find out if there was any validity in a 100 year life statement. Our first task was to locate documentation on these cells, and we turned to the Internet to locate manuals, documents, specifications, etc (1,2). While locating different manuals was easy enough, we could not determine the serial number code that was stamped into the top of each cell, so we did not know the age of any of the cells. Luckily we finally reached out to Ole Vigerstol of Saft who contacted their Railroad Group people, who then provided us with the original Edison Date codes. And yes we did have cells that were all built between 1924 and 1931.

We also utilized installation and maintenance manuals from both Saft (3) and ChangHong (5) as guides or comparison purposes, to see if there were any major differences in their
instructions from the Edison manuals. While there were some differences none of the differences were of any great concern. When we received the cells they were in various conditions of charge, or fill, or just plain cleanliness. It must be understood the majority of these cells had been setting off charge in various states for many years.

picture1This shows the general condition of some of the cells as we received them. These originally were coated with a rubber like paint compound which was named Esbalite which is described in the Edison manuals as a special insulating paint. This coating covered the sides and the bottom, but none was on the top of any cell. However during the cleaning process of the cells, the
coating came off and we have not yet determined what we will use as a coating, so for our experiments we used wood spacers to maintain separation between the cells.picture3

The following picture shows the carbonate build up that we found in some of the cells, which of course has a severe impact on the cells performance.

IV. RECOVERY PROCEDURES
We randomly took cells of the same AH rating and made up different battery strings, and in some cases we took single cells and with each we boost charged and then float charged at the voltages that were stated in a 1916 Thomas Edison manual and then followed up with load testing at the full published five hour rate. All of the cells or battery strings failed miserably.Our as found individual cell voltages ranged from 0.06 of a volt to 1.36 volts. We attributed this wide of a voltage spread to the fact that some cells had been on charge just prior to our receiving them and some had been off charge for months or
years. Some were filled with electrolyte and some were empty or nearly so. manufactures
Nickel-Cadmium cells, ChangHong manufacturers both Nickel-Cadmium and Nickel-Iron, and of course the Edison cells are all Nickel-Iron. The common denominators are the Nickel and the Potassium Hydroxide electrolyte. We decided to follow Edison’s procedure since the cells were Edison cells.

The following is from one string of A8 cells and is an example of the age of the cells, and the as found open circuit voltages. As can be seen in this battery the age of the cells range from 1926 to 1930 with a voltage spread from 0.005 to 1.356. It is easy to see which cells have been sitting around the longest and which ones were recently on charge. After the electrolyte replacement we placed the cells back on float and then boost charged at 1.65 VPC followed by a return to float at 1.49 volts per cell and then further load tests.

The following shows the same cells as the previous chart, but with the respective float voltages following 100 hours of boost charging, and then being on float charge for about six weeks.

While experimenting with these cells we realized that even though the voltage would rapidly drop off in a matter of minutes when we tried to run a load test at the full published rate of the particular cell or battery, that if we lowered the discharge rate, the battery would hold voltage for a substantially longer amount of time, even though the best string would only support a 10 amp load for 22 minutes to an end voltage of 12.0 volts.

Throughout our testing we followed the instructions in the Edison manuals, and following those instructions we decided to replace the electrolyte. We obtained new electrolyte from
Saft as they are a major supplier of Nickel-Cadmium batteries and the Potassium Hydroxide that they use is the same as what is utilized in the Nickel-Iron batteries. Both Saft and ChangHong also provide instructions that explain that when the capacity drops off and boost charging does not return desirable results, that the electrolyte needs to be replaced.

A discrepancy that we discovered between the three manufacturers (Edison, Saft, and ChangHong) is that during the electrolyte replacement procedures, Edison states to pour out about half of the old electrolyte then to shake the cell vigorously and then to pour out the remaining electrolyte, but to not rinse with any water, and then to fill with new
electrolyte. Changhong says to pour out the old electrolyte and to shake it, and if the electrolyte is dirty in color to rinse it with distilled water two or three times, and then to fill with new electrolyte. Saft says to carefully pour out the old electrolyte and then to fill with new. This was the only real difference that we found between the three manufacturers. Of course Saft manufactures Nickel-Cadmium cells, ChangHong
manufactures both Nickel-Cadmium and Nickel-Iron, and of course the Edison cells are all Nickel-Iron. The common denominators are the Nickel and the Potassium Hydroxide
electrolyte. We decided to follow Edison’s procedure since the cells were Edison cells.
chart1chart2

 

 

 

 

 

 

V. PUBLISHED RATINGS

There were three different model cells that we had received and played with. There were models A4H, A8, and A8H cells. The H in any model just means that the cell is the same AH rating but it has more electrolyte reservoir and is approximately 7.6 Centimeters taller than the cells that do not have the H in their model number. The H designated cells were to be used in applications where there longer time periods between maintenance intervals.
With the three battery strings that we are reporting on here, we utilized the five hour rating from the Edison manual, and we used the end voltage of 1.0 VPC, also from the Edison manual.

The published rate for the A4H cells is 30 amps for five hours to an end voltage of 1.0 volt.
The published rate for the A8 and A8H cells is 60 amps for  five hours to 1.0 volt.

VI. WHAT WERE WE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
We are trying to learn if the Edison Alkaline cells that we had would indeed function at their advanced ages. But there is no existing standard to follow as a guide, so we decided to
utilize the IEEE 1106 (4) since it is for Nickel-Cadmium cells and the only primary difference between the two types is the Cadmium content in place of the Iron, otherwise they are Nickel and Potassium hydroxide.With our main goal being to determine if these cells or batteries would work reliably at their extended ages, and not to prove a specific capacity we decided to utilize the 1% per year aging factor from annex E of the IEEE 1106 .
With cell ages ranging from 80 to 87 years of age and an average of 85 years we decided to be conservative and used an aging factor of 0.2 which would reflect a 1% per year de-rating
factor for an 80 year old cell. With that decision made we made we settled on the following discharge rates. As you will notice we used the same five hour rate for the two different
models, even though one was a 150 AH model and two were 300 AH models. We do not yet understand why the A4H cells performed so much better than the A8 and A8H cells. We are suspecting that it was due to the fact that the A4H string had many more discharge/recharge sequences than either of the other strings, but only time will tell if the A8 and A8H strings continue to improve over time and cycling.
A8 and A8H cells used a 15 amp rate to 1.0 VPC

graph1
The following charts show the load test results at various times over the past approximately twelve months on all three of the strings. All of the load tests were run at the five hour rates to 1.0 VPC. As can be seen, the load tests that were run before we replaced the electrolyte were somewhat dismal, however as you will see in the load tests that were run after the electrolyte had been replaced were substantially improved, and then by the last load tests which were all performed in July 2011 there was further improvement.
graph2
Run time in minutes of the A4H string at 15 amp load A4H cells used a 15 amp rate to 1.0 VPC, where as if we used a 0.2 aging factor the rate would have been 6 amps. We made up one twelve cell string from the A8 cells, another twelve cell string from the A8H cells and an 18 cell string from the A4H cells. Each was placed upon its own charger. We utilized a varying range of float voltages at different times as part of this experiment. Primarily we kept the voltage between 1.47 and 1.5 but did sometimes go up to 1.57 volts per cell and 1.65 up to 1.85 when we equalized or boost charged. These voltages came out of the Edison manual and the float voltage corresponds to that recommended by both ChangHong and by Saft.
16‐Aug‐10
Chart 1. This chart shows the increase in run time with this battery with a 15
amp load.
graph3
VII. TEST RESULTS
As can be seen in the following charts, with each battery string there was some amount of run time under load but it was not until we replaced the electrolyte and then ran a number of discharge and recharge scenarios that the run time really returned. While we could not get any strings to recover to a level where they could support their full published rates, it was encouraging that they could support an age related reduced discharge rate for a full five hours. In each chart the left hand column is the original as found run time, with boost and float charging but no electrolyte replacements.

The middle column is after electrolyte replacement and boost charging and from float voltage. The green line is after some number of discharges and boost charges and also is from a float condition. Run time in minutes of the A8 string at 15 amp load
Chart 2. This chart shows the increase in run time with this battery with a 15 amp load.
Chart 3 is the string that is made up of the A8H cells.That these 80+ year old cells are still functional proves without any doubt that Nickel-Iron is a long lived design, now it will just take another 15 years to see if they will still be functioning at 100 years of age as Thomas Edison is supposed  to have declared.

VIII. CONCLUSION
This find of these old Thomas Edison Nickel-Iron cells has been quite an education for us at Battery Research and Testing, as our work for the past 29 years has been primarily
with lead acid and some Nickel-Cadmium, but with nothing of the age of these cells. In fact the oldest lead acid cells that we have load tested and that were still functional were old Exide Manchex strings that were 42 years old, and it appears that the only existing lead acid cells that might be able to be functional at 40 years of age are the Bell developed round cells for Telecom applications.

What we have learned has opened up our minds to explore possibilities for this design long life design cell. It would sure seem that any site that has a requirement for a long life battery that will tolerate abusive conditions would consider the total life costs of these type cells and see which works out to be the most cost effective.

I have approached the IEEE Battery Working Group to have Nickel-Iron included in the IEEE 1106 and IEEE 1115 documents during the recent re-affirmation process, but it was
decided to not include Nickel-Iron in those documents at this time. It would seem that since the IEEE 450 and IEEE 485 documents cover all of the different Vented Lead Acid designs such as Lead Antimony, Lead Selenium, Plante, or Lead Calcium which all use sulfuric Acid, that the IEEE 1106 and IEEE 1115 which covers Nickel-Cadmium cells which also uses Potassium Hydroxide as the electrolyte could easily have been expanded to include the Nickel-Iron cells.

IX. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to extend a special thank you to Weston Mitchell of the Fayetteville Hunting Club for providing us a chance to learn about Nickel-Iron cells and these specific pieces of the Thomas Edison history. If it had not been for his environmental consciousness, we would not have our eyes opened to this very durable battery technology that is all but
forgotten here in the US. Also thanks need to go to Bob Howland and Jim Miner of Battery Research for their  assistance and technicians time to perform the various assembly of the strings and testing. And last but not least, thanks to Ole Vigerstol and Jim McDowall from Saft for their assistance and comments, as well as to Sam Zhow from Sichuan Changhong Battery Company for his support.

X. REFERENCES
1. General Information and Instructions for the Operation and Care of the Edison Alkaline Storage Battery. Edison Publication Bulletin 850X.
2. The Edison Alkaline Storage Battery. By the technical staff of the Edison Storage Battery Company. For the National Education Association Joint-Committee Series Monograph
III. Document 804. Copyright 1916. From the University of Michigan Libraries. Digitized by Google.
3. Saft Installation and operating instructions for single cell Ni-Cd, models SCL, SCM, and SCH plastic case cells.
4. IEEE Std. 1106. IEEE Recommended Practice for Installation, Maintenance, Testing, and Replacement of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries for Stationary Applications.
5. ChangHong Battery Performance Data Manual. ChangHong Battery Operation and Maintenance Manual.





This is bigger…….

17 01 2016

That was big………  but this is bigger.

Whilst I admit to not hearing it for some time, the MSM has been spreading its usual nonsense in the form of “the fundamentals” [of the economy] are spot on, there’s nothing to worry about. Which I’ve been calling for years as crap, and now there’s a chart that explains everything regarding why I feel this way.

chart says it all

(Richard Koo: The ‘struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun’, Business Insider)

Why is the economy barely growing after seven years of zero rates and easy money? Why are wages and incomes sagging when stock and bond prices have gone through the roof? Why are stocks experiencing such extreme volatility when the Fed increased rates by a mere quarter of a percent?

It’s the policy, stupid. And here’s the chart that explains exactly what the policy is.

What this chart clearly shows is that the monumental increase in money printing had almost zero effect on lending, nor did it trigger the credit expansion the Fed were hoping for…… In other words, the Fed’s insane pump-priming of the economy experiment (aka– QE) both failed to stimulate growth and put the economy back on the so called ‘path to recovery’ we’ve been told was on, but everyone else has been saying for years never happened. For all intents and purposes, the policy was a complete flop.

Mind you, had it worked, I think we would have seen massive inflation. Basically, the fundamentals went AWOL way back in 2008. And no one wants to admit to it.lifestyle_banksy-500x332

The latest news from the US is that Walmart are closing 269 stores, which will probably leave some small towns with nowhere to buy anything,  and thousands of people out of work. If you need signs that economic collapse is now well underway, look no further than that little curler…..

The upside is that we might even see CO2 emissions starting to fall.





Global Economic Red Alert revisited

9 07 2015

Hot on the heels of publishing Global Economic Red Alert, this pops up over on ZeroHedge, an article from Phoenix Capital Research which gets a guernsey in this morning’s post too….

Greece is Just the First of MANY Countries That Will Be Going Belly-Up

Red-Alert-Button-460x306ALL of the so called, “economic recovery” that began in 2009 has been based on the Central Banks’ abilities to rein in the collapse.

The first round of interventions (2007-early 2009) was performed in the name of saving the system. The second round (2010-2012) was done because it was generally believed that the first round hadn’t completed the task of getting the world back to recovery.

However, from 2012 onward, everything changed. At that point the Central Banks went “all in” on the Keynesian lunacy that they’d been employing since 2008. We no longer had QE plans with definitive deadlines. Instead phrases like “open-ended” and doing “whatever it takes” began to emanate from Central Bankers’ mouths.

However, the insanity was in fact greater than this. It is one thing to bluff your way through the weakest recovery in 80+ years with empty promises; but it’s another thing entirely to roll the dice on your entire country’s solvency just to see what happens.

In 2013, the Bank of Japan launched a single QE program equal to 25% of Japan’s GDP. This was unheard of in the history of the world. Never before had a country spent so much money relative to its size so rapidly… and with so little results: a few quarters of increased economic growth while household spending collapsed and misery rose alongside inflation.

This was the beginning of the end. Japan nearly broke its bond market launching this program (the circuit breakers tripped multiple times in that first week). However it wasn’t until late 2014 that things truly became completely and utterly broken.

We are, of course, referring to the Bank of Japan’s decision to increase its already far too big QE program, not because doing so would benefit the country, but because it would bring economists’ forecast inline with governor Kuroda’s intended inflation numbers.

This was the “Rubicon” moment: the instant at which Central Banks gave up pretending that their actions or policies were aimed at anything resembling public good or stability. It was now about forcing reality to match Central Bankers’ theories and forecasts. If reality didn’t react as intended, it wasn’t because the theories were misguided… it was because Central Bankers simply hadn’t left the paperweight on the “print” button long enough.

At this point the current financial system was irrevocably broken. We simply had yet to feel it.

That is, until, January 2015, when the Swiss National Bank lost control, breaking a promise, and a currency peg, losing an amount of money equal to somewhere between 10% and 15% of Swiss GDP in a single day, and showing, once and for all, that there are problems so big that even the ability to print money can’t fix them.

This process is now accelerating in Europe where a country that comprises less than 2% of the EU’s total GDP (Greece) has managed to be FIVE-YEAR problem that cannot be resolved through more debt or money printing.

The ECB and EU have tried everything to kick the Greek “can” down the road. History has shown us time and again that Central Banks first attempt to deal with a debt problem by printing money… but eventually the debt default/haircut has to occur.

This process has now begun in Greece. The fact the markets are imploding should give you an idea of how fragile the system is. One can only imagine what will happen when a larger player such as Spain or France or even Japan goes belly up.

The Big Crisis, the one in which entire countries go bust, has begun. It will not unfold in a matter of weeks; these sorts of things take months to complete. But it has begun.





Richard Wolff on the coming crash…….

30 05 2015

Of course, zero mention of Limits to Growth here………





Bakken Sweet Spots are Petering Out

23 11 2014

Ron Patterson

Reblogged from Ron Patterson’s Peak Oil Barrel site Posted on

I’m so glad there are people out there who have access to the data and know how to interpret it so plebs like us can understand what is really happening in the world of Peak Oil…..

The Bakken, as well as other shale oil areas, is not one homogeneous area where equal amounts of can be found. David Hughes in DRILLING DEEPER puts it this way, though here he is talking about gas wells, the same applies to oil wells:

All shale gas plays invariably have “core” areas or “sweet spots”, where individual well production is highest and hence the economics are best. Sweet spots are targeted and drilled off early in a play’s lifecycle, leaving lesser quality rock to be drilled as the play matures (requiring higher gas prices to be economic); thus the number of wells required to offset field decline inevitably increases with time.

However the Bakken, at least through the September North Dakota Industrial Commission  production report, has given no real indication that the Bakken is even close to peaking. But a closer look at the data makes me believe that is all about to change.

The NDIC issues a Daily Activity Report where they list permits issued as well as wells completed and wells released from the tight hole confidential list. These reports usually, but not always, also give the number of barrels of oil per day and barrels of water per day for the first 24 hours of production.  I have gone through every day, back to November 1st, 2013 and collected the data on every well listed that gives production numbers and copied that data to Excel. In that one year and three weeks I have gathered the data form every one of the 2,171 wells that give production numbers. Sorting these wells by well number, which is the original permit number, gives some startling results.

ND 200 Well Avg

To smooth the chart I created a 200 well average of barrels per day per well. The first point on the chart is therefore the average to the 200th well, #23890 and the last point is the 200 well average to the 2171st well, #28971. As you can see there has been a continuous, though erratic, decline in first 24 hour production as the well numbers increase.

ND Prod per 1000

Breaking this down according to well numbers we see production peaked with the 2400s and have steady decline since. Every group of well numbers do not contain the same number of wells.

Well Numbers BOPD       Number of Wells in Sample
18s – 22s              1,235                81
23000s                1,362               134
24000s                 1,497               285
25000s                 1,320              676
26000s                 1,198              591
27000s                 1,016              361
28000s                   841                40

ND Barrels per Well

The above chart is monthly first 24 hour production per well and first 24 hour percent water per well of all wells that the NDIC listed production numbers. The November 2014 numbers are only through November 21st.

Note: The first 24 hours of production is far from being the average first years production. And though all wells are different I am relatively sure there is an average conversion rate but I have no idea what it is. I would guess it is somewhere between one quarter to one third of the first 24 hours of production. But if anyone has any idea what the average conversion factor is, if one exists, please email me at DarwinianOne at Gmail.com, or post it in the comments section of this post.

North Dakota issues drilling permits in sequential order. But those permits are not drilled in sequence. Drillers will often sit on a permit for two to three years, renewing then as the law requires.

A list of all active drilling rigs, the well number they are working on and the date they started can be found at the NDIC’s Current Active Drilling Rig List They are listed according to their API number but the list can be copied and pasted into Excel and sorted according to your wishes.

Well List

Of the 191 rigs working, 39 or 20% are working well numbers below 28000. 76 or 40% of rigs are working well numbers in the 28000s. And 76 or 40% are working well numbers in the 29000s. Permit #28000 was issued on March 26. 2014. So 80% of all rigs are working on recently issued permits.

As of November 21st, the highest well number completed was #28971. The highest number well currently being drilled is #29908. The highest permit number issued is #30076.

Will enhanced oil recovery keep the Bakken going into the future. A simple one word answer is “no”, as this article explains.

Enhanced oil recovery techniques limited in shale

Energy companies currently leave about 95 percent of the crude in the ground at today’s unconventional oil wells, but they face major technological challenges in boosting recovery rates, a Schlumberger scientist said Tuesday…

“Our entire spectrum of secondary recovery methods don’t work,” Kleinberg said, in a sobering talk at the Energy Information Administration’s annual summit in the nation’s capital.

Water flooding — where water can be swept from separate injection and producer wells — isn’t an option because the tight oil formations are too dense to permit those water flows.

And while carbon dioxide can be used to pressure up a conventional oil well, there’s currently a limit on the amount of that gas that is available to pump underground. “The oil industry would like to have more CO2, which is a great way to get more oil out of the ground, but there are limits on affordable, accessible supplies of CO2,” Kleinberg said, quipping: “The oil industry lives in a CO2 constrained world; it is only the oil industry that thinks there is not enough carbon dioxide.”

In conclusion, first 24 hour production per well, when measured by well number, has dropped by 40 percent since peaking in the 24000s. This, to me anyway, clearly indicates that the sweet spots are playing out and companies are now drilling on less productive acreage. I now believe that North Dakota production will peak no later than 2015 with a high probability that 2014 will prove to be the peak year.

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