The price of fuel…. yep, Australia still bang on target to run out of oil by 2020

18 01 2017

Following on from the article I recently published regarding the sudden rise in the cost of fuel in Australia by a whopping 14% in one day, and the absence of any logical reason despite the mainstream media falsely rabbitting on about the soaring cost of oil, I started thinking about the series of articles I wrote years ago about Australia running out of oil by 2020……. the last time I investigated this was almost three years ago. How time flies when you move interstate and start again…!

Finding current data turned out difficult, as usual. My traditional source from the government has still not updated its spreadsheets beyond September last year, so 2016 totals were not yet available.

This chart is from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/crude-oil-production and means I don’t need to produce my own..!

australia-crude-oil-production

Predictably, we are still bang on target to totally run out of oil by 2020, now just three years away.

I still believe that the oil companies are in serious financial trouble, but the fact that we are continually importing more and more liquid fuel from overseas instead of producing our own cannot be helping the situation. How much you will have to pay for the fuel for your favorite vehicle three hears hence is anyone’s guess…. except it’s unlikely to be less!

You may also remember I commented about the huge shale oil deposit found in South Australia over four years ago. Why has nothing yet happened about this scenario changing event, as we were promised by the ranting media of the time…?

A year ago, the Advertiser, Adelaide’s main newspaper wrote..:

THE company sitting on potentially significant shale oil reserves in the state’s far north has dismissed its previous claims to deliver a US-style economic boom for Australia.

AND…..

“We just don’t have the resources on the ground to facilitate it and it makes it harder for us to attract investment from major traditional oil investment markets such as the US because if you look at it pound for pound, you are investing in a remote area in a remote part of the globe,” he said.

Don’t expect that chart to change any time soon……..

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Big Oil stocks to crash 50% by 2020

27 04 2014

Hot on the heels of Steven Kopits’ presentation, this gem turns up on the Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch website…..

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Yes, we see 10 early warnings that Big Oil stocks are going to trigger an economic collapse by 2020, maybe 50% as gas (Petrol to you Aussies..) prices go through your SUV’s sunroof.

1. Big Oil’s conspiracy is a fracking, cracking Zen moment …

Reuters recently reported that Rex Tillerson became a party in a local lawsuit opposing a planned new water tower near his $5 million retirement ranch. Yes, that Tillerson, Exxon Mobil’s $40-million-a-year CEO. His neighbors say this eyesore will affect property values. Even Forbes’ Rick Unger couldn’t resist a dig: “The hypocrisy expressed in real life is so sublimely rich that one could never hope to construct a similar scenario out of pure imagination.” Tillerson is signaling a subtle lesson here for Big Oil as more states follow Ohio’s lead, discover there’s a real scientific link between fracking and earthquakes.

2. The bliss of delusional denial when Big Oil profits peak, slide, collapse

“Even with the most optimistic set of assumptions — the ending of deforestation, a halving of emissions associated with food production, global emissions peaking in 2020 and then falling by 3% a year for a few decades — we have no chance of preventing emissions rising well above a number of critical tipping points that will spark uncontrollable climate change,” warns Clive Hamilton, Australian economist in “Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth about Climate Change.” Soon “the Earth’s climate will enter a chaotic era … One thing seems certain: there will be far fewer of us.” What? Me worry?

3. Unprecedented profits on a road to irreversible self-destruction

The world has “1.4 trillion barrels of oil, enough to last at least 200 years,” says CEO Tom Donohue of the Big Oil-funded U. S. Chamber of Commerce Yes, 200 years of oil. Too bad it’ll kill us in 50 years, says environmental economist Bill McKibben in Rolling Stone. Why? “We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn.” More will overheat Planet Earth. And over in Foreign Policy a resigned McKibben adds, “Act now, we’re told, if we want to save the planet from a climate catastrophe. Trouble is, it might be too late. The science is settled, and the damage has already begun.” The planet is on an “irreversible self-destruct path.”

4. Capitalism’s last, blind race to waste every bit of Planet Earth

Michael Klare warns in “The Race for What’s Left: The Global Scramble for the World’s Last Resources,” that “The world is facing an unprecedented crisis of resource depletion — a crisis that goes beyond ‘peak oil’ to encompass shortages of coal and uranium, copper and lithium, water and arable land. With all of the planet’s easily accessible resource deposits rapidly approaching exhaustion, the desperate hunt for supplies has become a frenzy of extreme exploration, as governments and corporations rush to stake their claims in areas previously considered too dangerous or remote.” Worse, “the race we are on today is the last of its kind that we are likely to undertake.”

5. Astronaut Buzz Aldrin: ‘You promised me Mars colonies, I got Facebook’

We’re not even trying to solve the big problems of the future, warns Jason Pontin editor-in-chief of the MIT Tech Review in “Why We Can’t Solve Big Problems.” Reason: Because our leaders kowtow to myopic science deniers and Big Oil billionaires with zero moral conscience. America’s lost the ability to think long-term, lacks think-big leaders. And Silicon Valley’s leading innovators prefer social media problems like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Farmville and X-Prize PR hits, while Big Pharma solves the world’s great erectile-dysfunction pandemic.

6. Big Macs in 2014, but in 2050 Earth can’t feed predicted 10 billion

Yes, the future is bleak. Fortunately, denial is a great tranquilizer. Jeremy Grantham’s GMO firm manages $117 billion. Research at his Grantham Institute for Climate Change tells us Earth can’t feed the 10 billion people predicted in 2050, three billion more than today: “As the population continues to grow, we will be stressed by recurrent shortages of hydrocarbons, metals, water and, especially, fertilizer. Our global agriculture, though, will clearly bear the greatest stresses,” a burden on productivity.

7. Soon we’ll need six planets to survive, even with no new little babies

In “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail of Succeed,” anthropologist Jared Diamond says “what really counts is not the number of people alone, but their impact on the environment.” Developed nations consume 32 times more resources, dump 32 times more waste than do undeveloped nations. If all 7 billion inhabitants of the planet consumed resources at America’s level, we’d need the resources of six Earths to survive” today!

8. Yes, humans are the new dinosaurs, building our own ‘Jurassic Park’

Writing in American Scholar Nobel physicist Robert Laughlin’s “The Earth Doesn’t Care If You Drive a Hybrid!” Or recycle. Or eat organic food. Or live in a green house powered by solar energy: “Earth didn’t replace the dinosaurs after they died” in the last great species extinction 65 million years ago, she “just moved on, became something different.” Laughlin says “humans have already triggered the sixth great period of species extinction in Earth’s history,” buying gas guzzlers, investing in Big Oil, forever in denial of the widening gap between endless growth and more babies living on a planet of vanishing resources.

9. Paradox: Yes, economic growth is accelerating the death of capitalism

Underlying many dark predictions of 2050 is our narcissistic self-destructive ideology of capitalism. In Foreign Policy, Yale’s Immanuel Wallerstein put the 2008 crash in context: “The Global Economy Won’t Recover, Now or Ever.” Our “capitalist world economy has been in existence for some 500 years … functioned remarkably well. But like all systems, it has moved … too far from equilibrium.” Now the only real “political struggle is over what kind of system will replace capitalism, not whether it should survive.” So what, me worry?

10. Capitalism’s doomsday cycle oblivious of bigger crash than 1929

After the last meltdown, former IMF chief economist Simon Johnson and Peter Boone co-authored “The Doomsday Cycle Turns: Who’s Next?” In one short generation “we have built a financial system that threatens to topple our global economic order.” We let “an unsustainable and crazy doomsday cycle infiltrate our economic system.” But this doomsday “cycle will not run forever,” they warn. “The destructive power of the down cycle will overwhelm the restorative ability of the government, just like it did in 1929-31.” In 2008 “we came remarkably close to another Great Depression. Next time, we may not be so lucky.” Since then Johnson, co-wrote the best-seller: “13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown.”

Fortunately, you’ll never see it coming. Denial really is a wonder-drug tranquilizer. So why worry, lighten up. Focus on the Wall Street banker in Mankoff’s cartoon. Meditate, his bullish guidance will lift your spirits: “While the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit.” And so it is … for today … until Big Oil stocks start plunging …

Paul B. Farrell is a MarketWatch columnist based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWFarrell.





Still on target……..

15 02 2014

Every year, I download the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics’ oil production data.   BREE’s data comes in spreadsheet form, and are official Federal Government data…… they are not numbers I make up, and as anticipated, the news are not good.  The production rate has fallen year on year during 2013 by a whopping 18.3%……  as I keep saying, imagine if the economy itself shrank this fast…?

The spreadsheet is available at http://bree.gov.au/sites/default/files/files//publications/aps/2013/aps-209-201312.xls if you want to see for yourself.

Using this data, I produced the following chart:

oil2020

As you can see, we are still on target to totally run out of oil sometime around 2020, which is now just six years away.  The silence over this gobsmacking trend is deafening…..  Of course, it is just a projection, a trend.  Things could miraculously improve, but they could also get worse……  for instance, why does it say on the spreadsheet “Petroleum production by basin data is currently under review and publication of this data is suspended until further notice.”?  The cynic in me can’t resist the idea they’re hiding something…..  like, is Bass Straight on the cusp of collapse?

Meanwhile………:

Australia’s $50 billion petrol industry is set for its biggest shake-up in decades, with energy majors Royal Dutch Shell and BP considering the sale of refineries and petrol stations in order to free up cash for their core energy production businesses, reports The Australian Financial Review.

Shell chief executive Peter Voster said in November last year that the company was “entering into a divestment phase” amid rising costs for energy projects and investor concern about capital expenditure…..

It is believed BP is also examining a $3 billion sale of its petrol stations and refineries in Queensland and Western Australia. BP supplies fuel to about 1400 petrol stations of which it owns about 225….

There is speculation Chevron may follow BP and Shell and consider selling out of service stations in Australia. A spokesman would not comment.

You can add these as yet more red flags to the collection of automotive manufacturing collection.  I expect QANTAS will be the next bull in the china shop…..

The adults morons running this country not only have no idea of what’s going on, they want to make it all even facepalmworse….

APPROVAL for a second Sydney airport at Badgery’s Creek could be given within months, with federal Treasurer Joe Hockey pushing to fast-track a decision to include the project in the government’s first budget.

Wonders will never cease….. if this goes ahead, it will be finished right on time for no fuel available to run the planes.  And you wonder why I think we’re screwed…





How Australia will run out of oil by 2020: the rout begins…

25 07 2012

Remember this inconvenient chart of Australia’s oil production?  Well, it now looks like it’s not just Shell that believes it’s real too….  they are going to close their Clyde refinery in Sydney.  But now, Caltex are joining the fray as well……

Australia’s failing oil production

Caltex axes hundreds of jobs at Kurnell refinery

Posted July 26, 2012 09:00:15

Petroleum company Caltex says it is cutting hundreds of jobs as part of restructuring plans which include the closure of Sydney’s Kurnell refinery.

Caltex says it will close Kurnell by the middle of 2014 after 57 years of operation.

More than 300 jobs will go as staff numbers are reduced from 430 to about 100.

Kurnell’s facilities will then be used as a transport fuel import facility.

A review of the plant’s operations was announced in May this year as part of a major restructuring of the company’s supply chain.

The company says the carbon tax had no impact on the decision to close the refinery.

Shell to stop refining at Clyde

Updated: 20:38, Wednesday July 27, 2011

Shell has confirmed it will stop refining at its Clyde Refinery and will import petroleum products into Sydney because it can’t compete with Asia’s mega refineries.

Shell announced on Wednesday it will convert the Clyde Refinery and Gore Bay Terminal in Sydney into a fuel import facility by mid-2013.

Now of course, the question is why can’t shell compete with Asia’s mega refineries?  Could it be lack of oil?  Or that perhaps as we start scraping the bottom of the barrel the cost of bringing the dregs to the surface is too costly?  it will be interesting to see just what the other oil majors do next..