As good as all over….

29 11 2022

Rob Mielcarski is a Canadian friend of mine with a great blog called un-denial. His latest post, Two Different Perspectives – Same Conclusion: Modern Lifestyles Will End Soon is must read material… A new paper by physicist Dr. Berndt Warm uses 5 different methods, 4 relying on economics, and 1 on thermodynamics, to predict when the end of oil production and motor vehicle production will occur. All 5 methods roughly converge on 2030 as the year when modern lifestyles end. Now anyone following this blog will know I’ve been saying for a long time that 2020 was crunch time, and 2030 is TSHTF time…

The paper can be downloaded here

Here are a few excerpts from the paper:

The author interprets the line of maxima as the oil price that the industrialized countries can afford to the maximum while maintaining their lifestyle. He interprets the line of minima as the price of oil that the producing countries need to keep their economies running. In mid-2019, the author noticed this crossroads and expected a crisis in 2020, although he was completely unclear what kind of crisis it would be. He didn’t expect Corona.

The inhabitants of the industrialized countries are now realizing that their lifestyle is at risk. The line of the maxima will reach the zero line (0%BOE) around mid-2027. From then on, the inhabitants of the industrialized countries can no longer afford oil without giving up many things of daily life. The demand of the oil producers is then 13-14 %BOE. These two values are incompatible.

Result: The extrapolation of oil prices shows that from 2022 the lifestyle in the industrialized countries will degrade, and that after 2027 the inhabitants of the industrialized countries will hardly be able to pay for oil or its products.

The fall in the price of crude oil from 2008 to 2020 with the extreme price increase since 2021 is an absolute alarm signal! Soon there will be no more crude oil affordable, no matter for which economy in the world!


Procedures 1, 2 and 4 are extrapolations of economic data of the past. Method 3 is a link between oil prices and car production. Method 5 is a calculation based on a law of physics.

The five calculation methods result in:

  1. End of world motor vehicle production between 2031 and 2034.
  2. End of oil production in 2027.
  3. End of worldwide sales of motor vehicles in 2027.
  4. End of German vehicle production in 2027.
  5. End of oil production in 2029.

The results are not the same, but in the end the same thing comes out. All five procedures show that vehicle production and oil production will continue to collapse in the coming years. Vehicle production will disappear first. Oil production later, as the world’s existing fleet will continue to consume crude oil, even if no new vehicles are added. It is to be expected, that the crude oil production will decrease slowly until 2027, and after that very fast.

And: Oil will be extremely expensive by 2027 at the latest!

And here’s something else you should find interesting…… I like Alan Kohler, he pulls no punches and at 1 minute 15 shows a chart which he reckons shows ‘inflation’ has little to do with money supply. So WHEN will he say we’re in a surplus energy crisis?

And there’s also this…… Just look at the timeline.

And one more thing for you patient people…



2 responses

29 11 2022

Interesting that RethinkX predict that livestock farming will be in a state of collapse around the same time.

*Ng**a mihi *


James Wilson

6 London Quay (Apt 304),

Picton, Marlborough, NZ

Ph. 021945589

30 11 2022

Without livestock AND fossil fuels, farming is over….

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