TSHTF

30 07 2021

You just know everything’s going pear shaped when the venerable acronym TSHTF, well known in our circles, hits mainstream media….. The below article written by Fiona Blackwood from the Hobart ABC Bureau appeared on the ABC News website and it’s so full of ironies I just had to pull it apart. So please bear with what will turn out to be an editing nightmare on my phone while I am still without a working laptop…

“Tasmania has been listed alongside New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom and Ireland as potential havens of the future.” Right….. So whoever wrote this has no idea about food security, because literally nowhere in the northern hemisphere is safe AFAIC.

“The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised “as Australia’s ‘local refuge (lifeboat)’ as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future”.

While many people have already moved to Tasmania to escape the heat in other states, some doomsday preppers are weighing up the island state as a post-apocalyptic option.”

Scottsdale's future is changing
Tasmania is already being chosen by mainlanders for its scenic landscape and relaxed lifestyle. (Supplied: Dorset Council)

“Tasmania scored highly in the report in terms of its climate, electricity supply, agricultural resources and population density.”

Mr Polin's land was put on the market in January 2012.
Mr Polin’s land included a bunker during the cold war in case of a nuclear holocaust.(ABC)

“The study states that rising populations and energy use have led to climate change, increased risk of pandemics and ecological destruction.

As a result, it found that human civilisation is in a “perilous position with regards to its future”.

“Professor of Human Geography and Planning at the University of Tasmania Jason Byrne agreed the state would be a good option to seek refuge “if things went pear-shaped globally”.

Professor Byrne said societal collapse refers to “a significant and permanent decrease in the ability of human societies to meet their needs”.

He said a rapid collapse could be triggered by a meteor crashing into Earth while a slower collapse could be caused by famine linked to climate change.

Professor Byrne said Tasmania has plenty of advantages in the event of a societal collapse.”

“We have high-quality agricultural land, we certainly have enough food that we produce.”

Errrr….. yes and no. as I wrote in this very blog a few years ago, Tasmania’s fertile land accounts for only 3.3% of its total farmland. Even what we have here on the Fanny Farm is ordinary and requires a lot of work…

“We’ve got a hydro-electric system which is more than capable of meeting our needs and we have fairly abundant forest resources … we could draw on.”

This would only work if everybody in this state completely changed their lifestyle….. The Hydro can only operate if it’s well maintained with fossil fuels. Post fossil fuels, all bets are off, and it’s eventual failure is inevitable…..

Jason Byrne wears a blue shirt and jacket.
Professor Jason Byrne agrees Tasmanians have the competitive edge when it comes to surviving societal collapse. (Supplied: Jason Byrne)

But could Tasmania handle a bigger population?

“Professor Byrne said the state would face problems in terms of its dependence on off-shore sources for oil and fuel.”

And THAT is actually the crux of the future of civilisation not just here but globally. I wonder if the author and professor Byrne are even aware that by 2030 we will have just half of the currently available fuels we take for granted today? Or that 100% of it will be coming from overseas…?

“Nor do we have large-scale manufacturing for things like clothing production or automobile manufacturing.”

Automobile manufacturing….? SERIOUSLY…..? WHO the hell thinks that this is an actual issue?

“He also warns that Tasmania could not cope with a large influx of people.”

“Instead of 2,000 people a year showing up here, if we had 20,000 or 30,000 or 200,000 people showing up, there’s no way we could meet their needs.”

You’d better believe it. Tasmania’s health care system is already at breaking point. My brother and his wife (who’s older than me) and has a dicky heart moved to Tassie no less than twice. They eventually returned to Queensland because she simply couldn’t get adequate assistance….. So if you intend to join us down here, you’d better be healthier than average like we are…!

“We just don’t have the housing stock available to meet a sudden mass of population increase.”

Don’t get me started on the housing stock…. 99% of housing in Tasmania is totally inappropriate and without electricity to run heat pumps, people will freeze here in winter….

Professor Byrne said there is no data on how many people move to Tasmania each year fearing the impact of future climate change scenarios.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re seeing the edge of this effect right now.

You better believe it….. I see Tassie’s infrastructure creaking under the strain of population growth everywhere. the traffic volume alone seems to have doubled since I landed here six years ago….

“That’s why I’m here.” What, to help make it all worse…?

“Professor Byrne moved to Tasmania with his family from the Gold Coast in 2018.”

“I’ve worked in the field of climate change adaptation for quite a while now and have become increasingly concerned about what the global models are telling us … about the intensity and scale of the change that’s happening,” he said. 

I’m surely NEVER going to forget our bushfires, and am most glad I built a fireproof house…..

“When the opportunity came to move down here to Tasmania, it was a no-brainer.”

Mainlanders already moving south

“A woman in her 50s who asked not to be named (I wonder if she follows damnthematrix…) told the ABC she moved from Perth to Tasmania in 2015 because she and her husband were fearful about the impacts of climate change.

“It was just getting extremely hot for many weeks of the year and so it’s fine when you’re in your air-conditioned house but then of course you need to leave.

“It really literally is like being punched in the face … the heat is just oppressive.”

Indeed every second person in Geeveston originally came from WA or Queensland….

“It’s happening faster than the modelling is predicting.”

An aerial shot of a country town showing the main street, green fields and river
Many mainlanders have moved to the small town of Cygnet, in the Huon Valley.(ABC News: Peter Curtis)

The couple now live on five acres in Tasmania’s south and are looking to ensure they are self-sufficient when it comes to food, water and energy.

“People sort of think it’s pretty extreme but … more and more people are coming to that realisation about how urgent it really is.”

Top of the list if SHTF

“The Real Estate Institute of Tasmania’s (REIT) president, Mandy Welling, said she was seeing a rising number of interstate buyers choosing to move to Tasmania.

“In the last 90 days, we’ve had an increase of about 10 per cent [interstate buyers],” Ms Welling said. “

I’m seriously surprised it’s not much higher…. I’ve been personally responsible for quite a few mainlanders who follow this blog moving to Geeveston. At least they’re appropriate and knowledgeable people aware of what’s coming down the pipe line.

House beams exposed
Some people have already made the move due to fears about the effects of climate change.(ABC News)

“She said climate change is not the only reason Australians are heading south.”

“Many of those are telling us that the reason they are doing that is to escape COVID.”

“They see our government has made hard and fast decisions and been able to protect Tasmanians.”

On the extreme end of people preparing for a societal collapse, a Facebook group of doomsday preppers discussed preferred Australian destinations should the SHTF (shit hit the fan).

Tasmania attracted a number of opinions.

“End of the earth, small population.”

“Has handled COVID well, Tassie can easily shut the borders.”

“Beautiful but cold.”

“Too corrupt and too close to Antarctica, where all sorts of crazy happens.”

“Harsh winters that can make growing harder but not impossible.”

“Plenty of tiger snakes.”

GOOD….. People like that aren’t welcome.

To be perfectly candid, it’s bordering on too late to make the big move for vast numbers of people. If there was a sudden selling rush anywhere on the big island, housing prices would collapse and most people are too greedy to allow themselves to sell ‘at a loss’. Furthermore, what makes Tasmania what it is is precisely its tiny population. Growth is always the problem, and the big one can’t come fast enough for me. The madness must stop.


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22 responses

30 07 2021
Danny

it irks me greatly to hear academics talk of ‘adaptation’ as though it is humans can adapt, environmental refugees are in the hundreds of millions, I’d go so far as to say, it will be in the billions …

You may recall I wrote (more than several times, about 15 years ago), that I saw 2020 as being the time when half the world’s population would be dead or dying of starvation.

When was the last time you looked Mike, i think you told us that in August 2012, the world had already consumed all that was to be grown then.

30 07 2021
mikestasse

Nobody in their right mind would have thought that the financial system would go ballistic. And in the process make the future even worse.

30 07 2021
Bev Courtney

Is it possible you could send this blogpost to the ABC news website and ask them to print it? More than likely they won’t but someone might sit up and take notice. The stupidity and lack of intelligent thought in the original news report is mind-boggling.

30 07 2021
mikestasse

I’ve sent a link to both the author and the professor…

30 07 2021
Bev Courtney

Good !

31 07 2021
Craig Walters

Good on you

4 08 2021
mikestasse

Neither has replied as yet…..

30 07 2021
Bev Courtney

OK I’ve done it for you. I’ve sent a link to your blogpost to Fiona Blackwood.

30 07 2021
mikestasse

The more mail she gets the more she’s likely to pay attention!

30 07 2021
Lee Miller

Unfortunately we won’t be able to outrun the future.

30 07 2021
Llewellyn James

“Tasmania has been listed alongside New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom and Ireland as potential havens of the future.”

Not sure about Iceland but the UK, wonder the person whom suggested this is on some kind of med?

30 07 2021
Equanimity Foundation

Had bipartisan resolve to price carbon at the federal level not fractured 10+ years ago, there might be a bit less of this ‘every bugger for itself’ self-serving behaviour. People too old to bear children should leave Tasmania to the younger ones. Anyone thought of that?

31 07 2021
Hamish McGregor

“People too old to bear children should leave Tasmania to the younger ones”,

Absolutely !!! And those people procreating, should be encouraged to have as many as possible. And the tax code should be modified to encourage more children and penalize those that hesitated. And in-extremis, old people should be prepared to literally sacrifice limbs to feed the children.

31 07 2021
Danny

hmm, I’d be a bit gristly .. which could stand me in good stead

31 07 2021
Equanimity Foundation

Err… did you read the bit about “could Tasmania handle a bigger population?”???

1 08 2021
Equanimity Foundation

Hamish what inspired your invocation, “those people procreating, should be encouraged to have as many as possible…” etc.?

31 07 2021
Danny

what is the – age – cut off point?
Too young and they might not know enough

1 08 2021
Hamish McGregor

Err… did you read the bit about “could Tasmania handle a bigger population?”???

I was responding to your comment not the article. It seems you have concluded the answer to the question of can Tasmania handle a bigger population, is no. Therefore “people too old to bear children should leave Tasmania to the younger ones”.

A mans sperm still has motility well into old age. So I guess when you say “too old to bear children”, you really mean just women after menopause. Why not just do the whole Logan’s Run thing – when people turn 30 years of age, its off to the carousel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run_(film)

Fiona Blackwood’s original story :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/tasmania-among-best-places-to-survive-global-collapse/100333892

Also from Fiona Blackwood in 1991 :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/climate-migrants-moving-south-to-tasmania/11800152

Seems that Fiona Blackwood’s article is based on the following :
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/15/8161/htm

That report was picked up by Michael Snyder :
http://themostimportantnews.com/archives/when-society-collapses-will-the-united-states-be-one-of-the-best-places-to-be-located

And re-published on ZeroHedge :
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/when-society-collapses-will-us-be-one-best-places-be-located

31 07 2021
31 07 2021
31 07 2021
Danny

I read that Tasmania cannot, due to limited arable soils, burgeoning infrastructure, and dependence on places outside Tasmania

On top of that, there is the fresh water contamination due to Gunns and their ilk, contamination in harbours, then there is the salmon farms poisoning large tracts and diminishing supplies of the once famous seaweed ‘farms’, the on-going exploitation by LNP and Labor politicians enabling the sale or ‘as-of-right’ control of all lands (including forests) for whatever …

as Mike explained to me some 20 years ago, the beaker half full of a doubling-weekly organism will take how long to overflow the beaker …

4 08 2021
danielboonjp

the reality is we – humans – have passed the Earth’s carrying capacity; time to go … quietly or kicking and screaming …take your pick.

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