Scientists: Window for avoiding 1.5C global warming ‘seems to have closed’

5 07 2016

Even as our new Senator Pauline Hanson wants a Royal Commission into Climate Science…….

Global greenhouse gas emissions as implied by INDCs compared to no-policy baseline, current-policy and 2°C scenarios. White lines show the median of each range. The white dashed line shows the median estimate of what the INDCs would deliver if all conditions are met. The 20th–80th-percentile ranges are shown for the no-policy baseline and 2°C scenarios. Graphic: Rogelj, et al., 2016 / Nature

By Megan Darby
29 June 2016

(Climate Change News) – Scientists have bad news for people on the front line of climate change impacts.

The 1.5C global warming limit vulnerable countries fought hard to include in the Paris Agreement may already be out of reach.

There is slim chance of stabilising temperature rise at that level without controversial negative emissions technology, according to a study published inNature.

“The window for limiting warming to below 1.5C with high probability and without temporarily exceeding that level already seems to have closed,” the report found.

It is a blow for those living near the coast of Bangladesh or low-lying islands like Kiribati, which is preparing for an exodus as rising seas swallow homes.

Coral reefs dying and tropical heatwaves are also expected to kick in at moderate levels of global warming, affecting millions of people worldwide.

In the most up-to-date analysis available, researchers found national climate pledges were consistent with temperature rise of 2.6-3.1C above pre-industrial levels. [more]

Scientists: Window for avoiding 1.5C global warming ‘closed’


ABSTRACT: The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C [pdf]

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9 responses

5 07 2016
robertheinlein

It looks like it’s time to give up on the idea of stopping global warming and embrace geo-engineering as a serious solution. We need to seriously start with CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) and to look at grinding up limestone rock to spread in the oceans to control pH levels.
—Bob

5 07 2016
kika

no, please robert. geo-engineering is just another way to muck up nature and make and even bigger mess.

6 07 2016
mikestasse

I concur…….. geo-engineering is a non solution. The solution is consumption reduction to an eventual zero. Which is what will happen anyway.

5 07 2016
rabiddoomsayer

The idea we could hold global warming to 1 1/2 degrees was a fantasy. We blew that long ago. Firstly aerosol masking, that is protecting us from a big chunk of what we have done, will go away when we stop polluting. Secondly there are some substantial lags in the climate system. Thirdly there are feedbacks underway that will keep going for some time (Arctic Sea Ice melt, melting permafrost, increased wildfire, dying forests).

I hear comparisons to where we are headed to the Eemian. Max CO2 in the Eemian was more than 100ppm lower than where we are now, let alone all the gases that did not exist then. The Eemian climate will be a whistle stop on the way to horror.

We know from the study of past climates that the climate can change quickly. We are changing forcing more than an order of magnitude faster than anything before. But we keep going with the fantasy that we face ordered, linear climate change.

You have seen it before and you will see it many times more “Faster than expected”

5 07 2016
ejhr2015

It’s time to resubmit Simon Michaud’s 2012 lecture. The solutions are nonsense when you really think about it. He shows why.
Watch this;

6 07 2016
mikestasse

I’ve already published this……..

6 07 2016
ejhr2015

No bad thing to remind people how good it is. I do recall putting it up a couple of years ago or so.

5 07 2016
ejhr2015

Apologies. This is the relevant lecture. Too much hopium in the earlier one.

5 07 2016
Harquebus

A Royal Commission into the facts surrounding the climate debate might just settle the issue in Australia once and for all, silence the opposition and allow us to finally do something about it.

It looks increasingly likely that nature will solve this problem in the usual way. Population collapse.

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