2015 hottest year on record

21 01 2016
No surprises here….  except that NASA and NOAA disagree with Dave Kimble, showing global temperature has gone over 1C above baseline. But what would they know?

2015hottestyear

2015 was Planet Earth’s warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Credit: NASA/JPL.

Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much.

The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists concur with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty.

“Climate change is the challenge of our generation, and NASA’s vital work on this important issue affects every person on Earth,” said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. “Today’s announcement not only underscores how critical NASA’s Earth observation program is, it is a key data point that should make policy makers stand up and take notice – now is the time to act on climate.”

The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degree Celsius) since the late-19th century, a change largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere.

Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 15 of the 16 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Last year was the first time the global average temperatures were 1 degree Celsius or more above the 1880-1899 average.

2016GlobalNumbers_TopTenYears

Phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña, which warm or cool the tropical Pacific Ocean, can contribute to short-term variations in global average temperature. A warming El Niño was in effect for most of 2015.

“2015 was remarkable even in the context of the ongoing El Niño,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Last year’s temperatures had an assist from El Niño, but it is the cumulative effect of the long-term trend that has resulted in the record warming that we are seeing.”

Weather dynamics often affect regional temperatures, so not every region on Earth experienced record average temperatures last year. For example, NASA and NOAA found that the 2015 annual mean temperature for the contiguous 48 United States was the second warmest on record.

NASA’s analyses incorporate surface temperature measurements from 6,300 weather stations, ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, and temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations. These raw measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the conclusions if left unaccounted for. The result of these calculations is an estimate of the global average temperature difference from a baseline period of 1951 to 1980.

NOAA scientists used much of the same raw temperature data, but a different baseline period, and different methods to analyze Earth’s polar regions and global temperatures.

GISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.

The full 2015 surface temperature data set and the complete methodology used to make the temperature calculation are available at:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

For more information about NASA’s Earth science activities, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/earth

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4 responses

21 01 2016
davekimble3

I don’t know why you should choose to start off with such a lying personal attack about this data. I said your earlier article was a PREDICTION and should include the temperature range. You DENIED it was a prediction. And yet the DATA analysis (not a prediction) only came out today. I was quite happy to go along with the predicted, 1.02 ± 0.11 °C, so long as everyone understood it was a prediction (which you didn’t).

So I was right, and you were wrong, again.

This article now gives us the stunning revelation that the increase was “about 1°C”. Couldn’t you do a bit of background work, to do better than that?

This is a chart of temperature increase for the global results (there are several other ways of doing it – Northern/Southern hemisphere, Land/Ocean):

It is obvious that annual data (representing weather + climate change) is not at all the same thing as the mean (climate change alone).

The red line is the five-year moving average, and it clearly shows how far off the mean an individual annual measurement can be (due to weather), approx ±0.1 .

Unfortunately a 5-year moving average cannot provide a mean for the latest year, by definition, but calculating the current mean by Fourier analysis (level 6) the 2015 mean was 0.9. The value for 2015 was 1.01 which is 0.11 above the mean. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2016 was cooler than 2015, in the same way as 1998 (an exceptional high) was followed by six cooler years.

Let’s face it, you don’t really understand any of this, do you?

22 01 2016
Idiocracy

I’m really over the “Climate Debate” and the splitting of hairs in 4 over the data. If were going to face anything, why dont we face and deal with something of importance, meaningful, that will actually make a difference? Why continue playing the roles of climate analists and agitators within the very spectacle that is f*#+ing destroying the planet!?

As I’ve said previously, nobody is serious about dealing with our problems, only endlessly pouring over the data of the symptoms… thus the outlook for this paient is unfortunately grim!

23 01 2016
Diana Tod

Morning Austy,

Here’s another cheery little article. Interesting graph – some people around here assert that these hot days we’re having have always been…..well, maybe, but the graph tells it as it is. Driest year in living memory is what the farmer up the hill says – summer started with dams half full. Adrian confirmed this when he came out in August/Sept – said many dams were only half full.

IPPC are warning of a 6 degree warming if we continue to burn fossil fuels at current rates – at 1 deg I’m losing trees – how do we feed ourselves or the world with even 2 degrees…

How’s life on the farm/Sale – are you busy? Lunch?

xox

Sent from Windows Mail

23 01 2016
mikestasse

Life on the farm is looking up…… sold my first produce this morning, a whole dozen eggs!
And I keep meeting such friendly and helpful people in this town, it never ceases to amaze me….
Having cleared my quarter acre of tall grass by hand this week, I had some gardening to do in an attempt at filling it up. Blueberries I started thinking… so I asked around at the markets where could I buy some plants, and next thing you know I meet Ruth who has 14 acres covered in birds, veggies, blueberries, roses, pigs….. and a whole bunch of French wwoofers!
I walked out with four blueberry bushes, and Ruth threw in two punnets of berries just for good measure. I’m eating some right now with yogurt!
And no sooner had I finished planting, it started raining. Well it’s really trying. Apparently we’ll get some decent rain on Mon/Tue. Sure hope so, this is the driest January on record.

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