New Study Finds 3-4 Meter Sea Level Rise From Antarctica May be Imminent

4 10 2014

robertscribbler

Ocean stratification. A condition characterized by the separation of layers of water of different temperatures and chemical make-up. A condition that has serious impacts to the geophysical nature of the worlds oceans, to the ability of oceans to support life, and to the stability of the vast glaciers of Antarctica — whose faces plunge as deep as hundreds of feet into the Southern Ocean.

In the Antarctic, today, what we see is a cold surface layer and a heating bottom layer. The cold surface layer is fed by an expanding pulse of chill, fresh water issuing from the melting glaciers of Antarctica. Over the years it has become more uniform, sequestering cold near the surface as warmth builds up in the depths below. The deeper hot layer is fed by warmer water issuing in from the tropics and heated to temperatures not seen for tens of thousands of years. This…

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7 responses

4 10 2014
Dave Kimble

The final link to http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/nature-human-destabilized-antarctica-capable-of-glacial-outbursts-contributing-to-sea-level-rise-of-14-feet-per-century/ says:
The top range of a 3 foot sea level rise for this century under IPCC modeling is likely, given current realities, to instead be a low estimate. A more realistic range, given a greatly reduced true glacial inertia, is probably 3-9 feet through 2100 with higher outside potentials during large glacial outburst flood events.

So this all relies on IPCC predictions of CO2-e in 2100, which are totally wrong given that Peak Fossils is upon us now. The actual CO2 levels will be much LOWER.

Then 3 feet of turns into “probably 3-9 feet” – why? Where’s the modelling?

Then 9 feet turns into 14+ feet – why?

Then “by 2100” turns into “imminent” – why?

Why? – because it’s more SCARY when you tell the story that way, and you get more web hits and become famous.

4 10 2014
mikestasse

WHY? Because we have already fired the clathrate gun, and even if we stopped burning fossil fuels now, the 40 year time lag between the emissions and their resulting temperature rises will ensure that all the arctic ice disappears with the resulting albedo losses causing runaway temperature rises.

4 10 2014
Dave Kimble

That article doesn’t mention clathrates, and is not based on having done any modelling. You mention clathrates. Have you done any modelling based on that? Even the lowest IPCC scenario, RCP2.6, forecasts fossil fuel emissions that are still far too high for the realities of Peak Fossils.

Don’t you believe in Peak Fossils? – I thought you did.

4 10 2014
mikestasse

You know very well I believe in peak fossils….. but you continue to ignore the fact we have ALREADY done more than enough harm with past emissions to ensure we would sail past 2C even if we stopped fossil fuels tomorrow.

We are only now feeling the results of emissions we generated in the 1970’s, and already, as far as I’m concerned, the weather patterns are going haywire….

4 10 2014
Dave Kimble

RCP2.6 was chosen because that gives +2°C in 2050, so if emissions under RCP2.6 are too high for Peak Fossils (and they are) then we are heading for less than +2°C. We are also heading for a Peak Fossils collapse of industrial civilisation starting in 2008, which is much more worrying.

4 10 2014
bev

again sheer garbage, sad to say we have all these bright people wasting time propping up myths, if the seas did rise(but won’t) some land would be lost, the creatures in the sea would have more area to play in so more water could not mean less ocean natural production

5 10 2014
Idiocracy

I’m guessing you voted Liberal last election Bev?

Try telling Pacific island nations that sea levels aren’t rising…

And I’m not sure what you mean by “ocean natural production” (that’s very capitalistic terminology), but put simply (in ecological terms), more water does not necessarily equal greater biodiversity nor abundance…

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