An appeal to young Aussies

5 05 2014

The Sniper

The Sniper*

Australia is in trouble. Young Australians will have to save it, if you decide it needs saving.

Australia was a democracy. It has slowly become a Corporatocracy: government by Big Business. You will have to change that, if you think it is a bad thing. I will not tell you what to think.

You could argue that Australia is still a democracy. Australians vote in free and fair elections to decide who will run things until the next election.

You could argue that Australia believes in the principle of a free Press (or news media generally). The British parliament, the model for ours, recognised the Press as the Fourth Estate, granting it the right to sit in the parliament and report on the affairs of government.

You could argue that nothing has changed and all is sweet in the land of Oz. You could look more closely, dig…

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Climate – What do we know?

5 05 2014

Another guest post from our friend Mark Cochrane……

If you have not yet watched the Ted Talk by Gavin Schmidt below, I highly recommend that you do so.

It is often authoritatively stated that:

adaptation costs are likely to be both less than mitigation costs and manageable.

which is a wholly unsubstantiated opinion that is refuted by hundreds, if not thousands, of scientific studies as recently reported in the Working Group II – adaptation (link), and Working Group III – mitigation (link) IPCC reports that have come out this year.

However, you do not need reams of technical materials to have basic sense. The logic and wisdom of the matter was succinctly provided by Benjamin Franklin and climate change is no exception.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

We know that we should substantially reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, actively seek alternative energy sources, and dramatically improve the efficiency with which we utilize energy. This statement would be true even if climate change issues were not at stake. Unless you fail to believe M. King Hubbert (1956 – Peak Oil), Meadows et al (1972-present Limits to Growth), and some guy named Chris Martenson (Crash Course – review here), you cannot help but know in your gut if not your head that our economic and societal over-reliance on rapidly depleting fossil fuel resources is a recipe for disaster, regardless of the climate consequences.

But since this topic is a climate one, what about the climate issues?  Christopher Monckton’s long debunked point about earlier periods of rapid warming is worth mentioning here. The 1920-1950 period actually would be relatively low warming, the correct period at issue is 1910-1940 when there was substantial warming that was only minimally related to human activities. Even so, that period did not warm as fast as we are currently experiencing.

However, this does provide a powerful indication of why we know that human-related emissions of greenhouse gases are of critical importance in ongoing climate changes. As Gavin Schmidt shows, the models are quite skillful in simulating many of the various climate processes at work throughout the world. The contrast between the the 1910-1940 and the 1970-present periods is very illustrative because we can compare modelled results to the actual observations of what has occurred in the global climate. When we look at how the models correspond to the climate record when forced only with ‘natural forcings’ (i.e. no additional greenhouse gases), we can see that the 1910-1940 period of warming is fairly well explained, while the rapid warming that we are currently experiencing is almost completely unexplained. (See Skeptical Science for a more detailed description of pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic).

Conversely, if we remove the ‘natural forcings’ and only include greenhouse gas increases caused by human activities (primarily fossil fuel use), we see that although humans did not have much of a hand in the 1910-1940 warming, we are certainly in the driver’s seat of change now.

Actual climate change is from the combination of natural forcing and our accumulated greenhouse gas emissions. We know that we have to kick the fossil fuel habit. While Limits to Growth, the Crash Course and other sources clearly indicate that there is going to be a serious hangover for humanity coming when, as Heinberg says, the Party’s Over, as fossil fuels become less and less available, the climate change effects are going to be handed to future generations as the unpaid bar tab of our ongoing fossil fuel binge.

Mark

“What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?”
F. Sherwood Rowland