Still on target……..

15 02 2014

Every year, I download the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics’ oil production data.   BREE’s data comes in spreadsheet form, and are official Federal Government data…… they are not numbers I make up, and as anticipated, the news are not good.  The production rate has fallen year on year during 2013 by a whopping 18.3%……  as I keep saying, imagine if the economy itself shrank this fast…?

The spreadsheet is available at http://bree.gov.au/sites/default/files/files//publications/aps/2013/aps-209-201312.xls if you want to see for yourself.

Using this data, I produced the following chart:

oil2020

As you can see, we are still on target to totally run out of oil sometime around 2020, which is now just six years away.  The silence over this gobsmacking trend is deafening…..  Of course, it is just a projection, a trend.  Things could miraculously improve, but they could also get worse……  for instance, why does it say on the spreadsheet “Petroleum production by basin data is currently under review and publication of this data is suspended until further notice.”?  The cynic in me can’t resist the idea they’re hiding something…..  like, is Bass Straight on the cusp of collapse?

Meanwhile………:

Australia’s $50 billion petrol industry is set for its biggest shake-up in decades, with energy majors Royal Dutch Shell and BP considering the sale of refineries and petrol stations in order to free up cash for their core energy production businesses, reports The Australian Financial Review.

Shell chief executive Peter Voster said in November last year that the company was “entering into a divestment phase” amid rising costs for energy projects and investor concern about capital expenditure…..

It is believed BP is also examining a $3 billion sale of its petrol stations and refineries in Queensland and Western Australia. BP supplies fuel to about 1400 petrol stations of which it owns about 225….

There is speculation Chevron may follow BP and Shell and consider selling out of service stations in Australia. A spokesman would not comment.

You can add these as yet more red flags to the collection of automotive manufacturing collection.  I expect QANTAS will be the next bull in the china shop…..

The adults morons running this country not only have no idea of what’s going on, they want to make it all even facepalmworse….

APPROVAL for a second Sydney airport at Badgery’s Creek could be given within months, with federal Treasurer Joe Hockey pushing to fast-track a decision to include the project in the government’s first budget.

Wonders will never cease….. if this goes ahead, it will be finished right on time for no fuel available to run the planes.  And you wonder why I think we’re screwed…

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10 responses

15 02 2014
Graham Palmer

Your extrapolation of the sale of petrol stations and the running out of oil in such a short time could an over stretch, Mike, but there maybe other factors at work. I feel it is hard to believe that the drivers of the business as usual economy model and the governments around the world could conspire together to hide or worse ignore such a possibility of the oil running out in the near time. But… It could be a case of mass delusion!

15 02 2014
mikestasse

You DO realise that these figures only apply to Australia…..??

15 02 2014
Bob

Exceptional Solar storage and management for energy independence is Australia’s oil!

16 02 2014
Daniel Boon

and that will drive cars, trucks, planes and tractors used in agriculture, Bob?

19 02 2014
Idiocracy
28 02 2014
Ride2Wk

Solution – well, I don’t have one but the following might help to delay things a bit longer while a solution is developed. Get drivers off their fat ars–, out of the car. Walk or cycle instead and live closer to work instead of way out in suburbia for “lifestyle” & cheap land.
I doubt we wont have any oil in 2020. We’ll just have to pay a higher price to get what is left of it overseas.
I’ve known this was coming since primary school in the mid 70s when our teachers warned us we should not drive cars so much especially V8s. I’ve been a cyclist since Uni and usually ridden to work for over 30 years now. But what do I get for not using oil (beside keeping healthy) – abuse from some motorists who don’t realise the problems they are causing & more problems yet to come home to roost.’
There’s certainly the potential for the economy to suffer but in some ways I look forward to reduce cars on the road & all the problems they cause.

21 08 2014
gbell12

Mike – do we know why this hasn’t shown up in our petrol prices yet? Being a little lazy here, but should it show up in Australia’s trade deficit somewhere? Are we just printing AUD’s and buying the difference from the middle east?

21 08 2014
mikestasse

Our money printing cannot buy oil, because the traders only accept $US, so far.

I haven’t checked in ages, but last time I did look, we bought most of our oil from Malaysia and NZ….. yes you read that right, NZ!

I think it hasn’t shown up yet because, like the US, we are in fact driving less, so demand is still being met. Also, rather than put the price of fuel up, which may tank the economy, the oil companies are taking financial hits left right and centre… https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2014/02/27/oil-supply-and-demand-forecasting-with-steven-kopits/

I think the oil industry is being surreptitiously bailed out in the background, as they are the ultimate “too big to fail” entity……. just imagine what would happen if the oil majors just put their hands up one day and said “right, we;re going bankrupt, we’re closing up shop”…. It’ll probably happen one day, but only once everything’s gone totally pear shaped…

25 08 2014
gbell12

Raw data available here:

http://www.bree.gov.au/publications/australian-petroleum-statistics

Looks like demand dropped with production. Imports haven’t increased much. Back to sleep everyone?

25 08 2014
mikestasse

I expect with several industries closing down, unemployment up… more and more people can’t afford to drive as far as they used to.

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