Global Temperature: the Post-1998 Surprise

13 02 2014

Thanks to David Hamilton for this heads up:
I also like this wonderful post from Tamino: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/#more-6942 For those of you who have not come across him before, “Tamino” is a statistician who loves to interpret data, and this post is one of his absolute best. It’s about the warming “pause” and he keeps the technical details down and the quality analysis way, way up.

Open Mind

Given how rapidly global temperature was rising prior to 1998, what’s the most surprising thing about global temperature since 1998?

Most who call themselves “skeptics” of global warming would probably say “No global warming since 1998!” Under the name “hiatus” or “pause,” it features prominently in public discussion and even in senate testimony (e.g. from Judith Curry). In truth, such a “pause” or “hiatus” is not that surprising, neither from a statistical point of view nor based on climate model output. But there is one thing about post-1998 temperatures, compared to the pre-1998 temperatures, that is quite a surprise.

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One response

13 02 2014
Linne

Mike thanks for this. I followed down through some of the comments and at least they gave me something to laugh about. (not the data; the ‘Voice’ and the responses to it’s comments). I know that wasn’t intended, but still . . . It all makes me think of Nero, fiddling . . . or the eternal debate as to how many angels can stand on the head of a pin. Meantime . . . I’m grateful there are people with their heads down, sleeves rolled up, doing their bit toward meaningful change. I realize it may be too late, but I’d rather support them than those “standing deep in de Nile”. You’ve been posting some very interesting stuff. Thanks a lot for that, too.

But in spite of the seriousness of the topics, I’m still chuckling over the ‘average person has one breast and one testicle’ remark. ~ Linne

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