Global Temperature: the Post-1998 Surprise

13 02 2014

Thanks to David Hamilton for this heads up:
I also like this wonderful post from Tamino: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/global-temperature-the-post-1998-surprise/#more-6942 For those of you who have not come across him before, “Tamino” is a statistician who loves to interpret data, and this post is one of his absolute best. It’s about the warming “pause” and he keeps the technical details down and the quality analysis way, way up.

Open Mind

Given how rapidly global temperature was rising prior to 1998, what’s the most surprising thing about global temperature since 1998?

Most who call themselves “skeptics” of global warming would probably say “No global warming since 1998!” Under the name “hiatus” or “pause,” it features prominently in public discussion and even in senate testimony (e.g. from Judith Curry). In truth, such a “pause” or “hiatus” is not that surprising, neither from a statistical point of view nor based on climate model output. But there is one thing about post-1998 temperatures, compared to the pre-1998 temperatures, that is quite a surprise.

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