“Lies – damn lies – and statistics”

27 11 2013

The quotation “Lies – damn lies – and statistics” is often attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, the 19th century British Prime Minister, but it’s far from certain he was the originator of this saying.  Recently, however, the Australian Bureau of statistics released its prognostications (read, own set of lies?) on the future of Australia’s population…. and what a clueless bunch they are!  No one at the ABS has read the Club of Rome’s Report obviously, nor do they seem to be aware of Climate Change, because some of their ‘prediction’ seem to me to be totally without environmental grounds.

As I published quite some time ago, world population, for all sorts of reasons discussed everywhere on this blog, is bang on target to start collapsing around 2025.  Now it could be argued that Australia, being a rich nation with loads of resources, might begin its path to population reduction somewhat later, but there is no way known that it will double by 2075…..  we can’t feed all those already here without fossil fuels, and there is no doubt, at least in my mind, that by 2075 fossil fuels will be no more than a faint memory in the people’s minds as they wonder what we were thinking as we squandered the whole lot on trivial pursuits like flying to overseas holiday destinations and driving oversized cars, merely because we could.

Highlights from the ABS projections include Perth overtaking Brisbane in 2028.  REALLY?  Where will all those people get their water from?  Desal plants (thousands of them…)?  Powered how?  In 2028, Australia will have already reached oil exhaustion, and may well have virtually none to do things with….  If I had to take a punt, I would guess Perth would begin to be abandoned by 2028.

How about this pearler…: “Melbourne and Sydney should be neck and neck by 2053, with 7.9 million people each.”  My guess is that there may be no more than “7.9 million people” in the WHOLE of Australia by 2053…..

AND: “The population of the Northern Territory is projected to grow from 240,000 people in 2012 to 360,000 people in 2040 (a 51 per cent increase)”  Sure……  it’ll be at least 2 degrees hotter by then, cyclones will be occurring with monotonous regularity, and there will be no energy to run airconditioners.  Sounds like just the place to be……

“Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends” continues the press release…..  Someone should tell the ABS that recent trends are on steroids, and these steroids are about to disappear.

About the only thing they got right was “Tasmania’s population is tipped to level out by 2040, and then begin falling”.  By 2040, most Australians may well be living in Tasmania.  Just saying……

Just in case you’re interested, there’s a little interactive toy here you can play with that demonstrates their predictions by capital cities.

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3 responses

27 11 2013
brendoncrook

I heard these predictions on the radio today & I find it depressing that the industrial death culture aims for this ridiculous scenario with no thought nor concern for the non human species that have to contend with human arrogance. Time to take out the oil wells……………………………………..

27 11 2013
Graham

Tasmania’s population is falling even now and in 2007, the high, medium and low population projections were to decrease to 479,300, 457,000 or 434,500 by 2021. I wonder, however, if they allowed for “Climate Change Refugees” from northern parts of the continent?

27 11 2013
Mike

South African statisticians are prone to exactly the same sorts of blindness. I wonder what produces this… Recently these cleverdicks predicted such a volume of traffic on one of the national highways into Cape Town by 2055 that they will need to construct a mountain tunnel starting in 2035. I scratched my head wondering where all the oil was going to come from for all those cars.

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