Bushfire Frequency

26 10 2013

Abbott and Hunt both have been bandying about those historic catastrophic bushfires as ‘proof’ that Climate Change has nothing to do with these events.  Now of course, nobody’s arguing that global warming starts bushfires….  well not yet at any rate!  But the pair of them (and Bolt) may well end up regretting they ever mentioned them.  Because the numbers “29, 14, 11, 9, 6, ” are cropping up all over the media, or at least the media I care to read, not that Limited News crap that passes for journalism.

For someone like me who delves constantly in exponential curves like population, economy, fuel consumption, greenhouse emissions, you get my meaning……  I looked at those numbers and immediately got a gut feeling that something exponential was going on.  So I entered them into a spreadsheet and plotted a curve.  Here’s what I got:

bushfire-frequency

Well well well……  if that doesn’t look like a classic exponential curve (reversed of course, the fires are happening at smaller intervals) I’ll eat my hat.  At this rate, it will be a matter of just a couple of years before we have wildfires all the time.

The Climate Council recently released the following media:

Bushfires and Climate Change in Australia – The Facts

1. In Australia, climate change is influencing both the frequency and intensity of extreme hot days, as well as prolonged periods of low rainfall. This increases the risk of bushfires.

While Australia has always experienced bushfires, climate change is increasing the probability of extreme fire weather days.

Climate change is making hot days hotter, and heatwaves more frequent and severe. Last summer, Australia experienced the hottest summer on record, and now has just had the hottest September on record. Southeast Australia is experiencing a long-term drying trend. More intense and frequent hot weather, as well as dry conditions, increases the likelihood of extreme fire weather days.

Extreme fire weather has increased over the last 30 years in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and parts of South Australia

2. The NSW fires are being influenced by record hot, dry conditions.

While bushfires in NSW at this time of year are not unusual, the severity and scale of the fires may be unprecedented. Australia has just experienced its hottest 12 months on record. NSW has experienced the hottest September on record; days well above average in October and exceptionally dry conditions. These conditions mean that the fire risk is currently extremely high.

3. It is crucial that communities, emergency services, health services and other authorities prepare for the increasing severity and frequency of extreme fire conditions.

To deny the influence of climate change on extreme fire weather, and not take appropriate action to prepare for these changed conditions, places people and property at unnecessarily high risk.

4. In the future, southeast Australia is very likely to experience an increased number of days with extreme fire danger.

The projected increases in hot days across the country, and in consecutive dry days and droughts inthe southeast, will very likely lead to increased frequencies of days with extreme fire danger in that region.

As the fire seasons in southeast Australia become longer, the opportunity for fuel reduction burning is also decreased.

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Learn more about the link between climate change and extreme weather from the previous Climate Commission’s Extreme Weather Report.

And HERE is an excellent explanation of how warming weather affects the way bushfires start…..

 

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2 responses

26 10 2013
wanderer1954

then there will be ZERO bushfires in a desert …. (r)Abbott will say told you so, bushfires are not related to climate change ….

28 10 2013
bev

fact is a very loose term to use in this new theory fear program.

so this year some man made fires (not wildfires – wildfire means one that starts from dry lighting strike or contact with some ignition source broken glass foliage too close to over head power etc.,.)
so this season its bathurst’s time, next year or later in the season who knows? at all times human stupidity involved how they build and in among teh gum trees.

so waht if we have a fire in a different location, aus’ is a big place, so this stupid research trying support the climate myth and scare people into submission is so much poop, up hear it is years since we had a grass scrub fire (we don’t have those tree top southern fires up here), even then south east qld is a big place so if a fire occurs in teh south west(IF! as the cattle have eaten all grass) then that has nothing to do with fire frequencies in sth/east qld.

get real hey maybe get a life, we need real things, as poeople starve or have to drink arsenic laced water.

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