At last….. relatively good news on CC

2 10 2013

My friend Dave Kimble who has his ear to the ground and whose work I sometimes post here has sent me this by email…….

The IPCC’s AR5 final report from Working Group 1 (still called Final Draft) is available for download,
either all in one giant file of 158 MB (mine was damaged) at http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf or as lots of files of individual chapters, see http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

The RCP2.6 scenario corresponds to Peak Oil, Gas and Coal that peakists would subscribe to.  For reasons that are beyond me, you will have to click on the chart to see it full size…. ipcc.predictions It shows median summer temperatures over land rising to +1.5 C by 2045, and falling very slowly after that.

However the median is only the “most likely” for the whole world, over land, in summer.
The model predicts that the most likely half of all outcomes is in the range +1.0 to +1.8 C.
And the 90% of all outcomes range is +0.2 to +2.6 C.

This of course assumes that we manage to keep producing all the fossil fuels we can, on the downslope of Hubbert’s Curve, which seems very unlikely.

So there you have it.  Only collapse can save us from catastrophic climate change.  Though of course, we might still have fired the Clathrate Gun…..

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3 responses

3 05 2014
Murray Carew

Would I be correct in pointing out that anything in a 1-1.8 degree C rise will easily get us beyond 2 degrees C once you factor in the existing warming of .85 degrees and the 1.1 degree rise that is forecast to occur very soon after industry ceases pumping reflective sulfates into the atmosphere?

And then once we get to 2 degrees, we get to a much bigger number before too long after that?

3 05 2014
mikestasse

I think you’ll find that all temperature predictions INCLUDE the 0.8C we have already induced…

3 05 2014
Murray Carew

Oh yeah right, that makes sense. They tend to give temp rises “above 1990 levels” or something like that. Still, the loss of the industrially-induced cooling effect will pretty much get us over the line. Though who knows how long the machines will chug along for.

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