Why I Don’t Believe Randers’ Limits to Growth Forecast to 2052

26 09 2013

Our Finite World

Jorgen Randers published a book in 2012 called 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years. A note on the front says, “A report to the Club of Rome, Commemorating the 40th Anniversary of The Limits to Growth.”

If we compare the new book to the book from 40 years ago, we see some surprising differences. In 1972, the analysis suggested that serious resource depletion issues would occur about now–the first part of the 21st century. In comparison, current indications look much better. According to Randers’ current analysis, world GDP growth will continue to rise through 2050, and energy consumption will continue to grow until 2040. While a decline in oil supply will take place, it will not occur until 2025. When it does happen, it will occur sufficiently slowly and incrementally that other fuels can replace its loss, apparently without disruption. Renewables will ramp up far more…

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26 09 2013
lemmiwinks

Just looking at that graph, where is the exponential growth in renewables going to come from? There’s no sign of it ramping up thus far. Methinks that curve is based on nonesense rather than solid maths. Might as well throw in some thoruim reactors and Bill Gates’ nuclear waste reactors in there too. Hubris for everyone!

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