The drumbeat goes on….

25 08 2013

Is anyone surprised by this?  Because I’m not…….  We got two very light frosts last week, and then the warm

Mark Cochrane

Mark Cochrane

weather came back…..  my bananas are even fruiting!  Bananas in AUGUST?  and everything around our place is in flower, the bees are pumping, and I’ll have to rob our hives…  in AUGUST!

Anyhow, this is another quickie from Mark Cochrane.  I had to post it because of the sheer numbers he puts up in this one.

The year-to-date has been the sixth warmest on record globally, and July was also the sixth warmest such month since global surface temperature records first began in 1880, according to new data released on Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The figures show that July 2013 was the 37th straight July, and the 341st straight month, with warmer-than-average global temperatures — a more than 28-year time span that reflects the significant warming observed worldwide since the 1970s.

That means that no one under the age of 28 has ever experienced a month in which global average surface temperatures were cooler than average (based on the 20th century average) (link)

If anyone thinks that this is just some random fluke, I suggest that you don’t ever take up gambling. The chance of randomly having 341 months in a row that are ‘above average’ in temperature is roughly

one chance in 4,479,489,484,355,610,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

You can just round that off to one chance in 4 tretrigintillion. For those counting at home a tretrigintillion is 10^102.

Anyone want to bet that August will finally break the streak? If so, I will take that bet!

If not, then consider what that means. You already know internally that the climate has changed and isn’t heading back to ‘normal’ any time soon. When do we (humanity) accept that we have an issue? When the streak reaches 350? 400? 500 months?

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5 responses

25 08 2013
Paul Handover

“tretrigintillion” Gracious hadn’t even heard the name of such a large number. But I suspect, dear Mike, that your mistake is not mathematical but rational. In the sense that there are none so blind as those that chose not to see. If rational logic was driving the politicians and governments across the world, then something of the order of a united international emergency effort to resist further climate change would be under way.

But it’s not. We are being governed by greed, money and power and all that that implies.

25 08 2013
mikestasse

Well….. of course you would have never heard of a “tretrigintillion”! I wonder if there are that many stars in the Universe. Or did Mark make it up? And who makes up terms for numbers past quadrillion (the biggest one I can certainly think of..)

25 08 2013
Terry J Wall (@terryjw7)

Jesus wept!

28 08 2013
Mad Max

It was 30 c today 28th Aug north west vic it felt like Oct I the avg is top of 16c

28 08 2013
mikestasse

It was 29 here today…….. 7 above average! And we are already seeing mosquitoes. What will Summer be like…???

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