Countdown

28 11 2014

Alan Weisman

Another very good Youtube clip, this one on population.

To avoid the scenario laid out in his bestselling The World Without Us, Weisman formulated a series of questions about sustainability and population limits, then traveled to some twenty countries to find out what leaders and scientists think. Here’s his report on the future of humanity on this planet.

Founded by Carla Cohen and Barbara Meade in 1984, Politics & Prose Bookstore is Washington, D.C.’s premier independent bookstore and cultural hub, a gathering place for people interested in reading and discussing books. Politics & Prose offers superior service, unusual book choices, and a haven for book lovers in the store and online. http://www.politics-prose.com/





Prove This Wrong

27 11 2014

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John Weber

Another guest post by John Weber..  I have already pronounced more than once that building ‘renewables’ involves intensive use of fossil fuels, the emissions from which the machines made to generate this renewable energy can never be removed by the machines.  So while they may reduce the emissions that might have been caused by using fossil energy to generate this electricity, the machines do not remove them.  In fact, it doesn’t matter how many wind turbines are erected, the fossil energy use just keeps growing…..  and if we decided tomorrow to shut down all fossil fuel use (a darn good idea…), then not one more wind turbine would be erected, and not one more solar panel would be built.  It’s really that simple……..

 

It would be elegant if wind and solar energy capturing devices could actually maintain a modicum of the wonderfully rich lifestyles many of us live.  I believe this is a false dream and that BAU (business as usual) is not sustainable or “green” nor really desirable for the future of the earth or even our species.

Prove This Wrong

Many people believe wind and solar energy capturing devices can replace a substantial percentage if not all of our fossil fuel usage. Below you will find pictures and charts detailing the necessity of the fossil fuel supply system and the massive industrial infrastructure in this “renewable” dream.

Wind, Water, and Solar Power for the World

Nix nuclear. Chuck coal. Rebuff biofuel. All we need is the wind, the water, and the sun

By Mark Delucchi/ SEPTEMBER 2011

“We don’t need nuclear power, coal, or biofuels. We can get 100 percent of our energy from wind, water, and solar (WWS) power. And we can do it today— efficiently, reliably, safely, sustainably, and economically.  We can get to this WWS world by simply building a lot of new systems for the production, transmission, and use of energy. One scenario that Stanford engineering professor Mark Jacobson and I developed, projecting to 2030, includes: 3.8 million wind turbines, 5 megawatts each, supplying 50 percent of the projected total global power demand.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/wind-water-and-solar-power-for-the-world/

Mark Z. Jacobson Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University was coauthor of another article. It can be found in Scientific America – “A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030”.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030/

They proposed that starting in 2012, 50% of the worlds needs could be supplied by 3,800,000 five megawatt wind capturing devices to be installed by 2030. Here are the numbers:

3,800,000 5 megawatts each supply 50% of the world’s energy needs in 18 years

THIS MEANS

211,111.11 Machines a year

578.39 Machines a day for 18 years

24.10 Machines each hour each day for 18 years EACH ONE INSTALLED EACH DAY

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/wind-water-and-solar-power-for-the-world/0

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=a-path-to-sustainable-energy-by-2030

I am choosing wind energy capturing devices because they have a higher Energy Return on Energy Invested than solar energy capturing devices. I continually use the phrase “capturing devices” for what are usually called solar panels and wind machines because these are devices that capture the sun or wind energy. It is misleading to not realize they require energy and natural resources.

Let me cut right to the results of this study. The base of this 2.5 megawatt turbine in the pictures that follow (half the megawatts in the Jacobson/Delucchi study) used 45 tons of rebar and 630 cubic yards of cement. This computes in barrels of oil and in tons of CO2 for each base:

For the Concrete

478.8 Barrels of oil in 630 yards of concrete.

409.5 Tons of CO2 released for 630 yards of concrete.

For the Rebar

Taking a conservative 3 barrels of oil per ton the rebar would require 135 barrels of oil for the base of the 2.5 MW Turbine.

89 tons of C02 released for 45 tons of steel for the base.

All Together

The concrete and steel together for one base use

613 barrels of oil for each base alone.

Each base release 498 tons of CO2

(A barrel of oil is 42 gallons – or 160L)

Before looking at two of the energy requirements to install these 3,800,000 machines here are some interesting pictures of installing a wind energy capturing device from http://www.cashton.com/North_Wind_Turbine_Const-DM-CS-SB-2-reduced-in-size.pdf .

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/6f504-windinstallation12bcopy.jpg?w=564&h=397

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/192c6-windinstallation22bcopy.jpg?w=551&h=413

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/6f3bd-120tower.jpg?w=510

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/fb37f-setting.jpg?w=510

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/1ee08-top.jpg?w=510

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/5a470-parts.jpg?w=510

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/5d852-in2bfield.jpg?w=510

The machine we are looking at is only 2.5 MW turbine not the larger 5 MW proposed by Jacobson and Delucchi.

The turbines, each standing 485 feet tall and weighing 2,000 tons

The project utilizes 2.5 MW turbines on 100 metre towers.

(http://www.kansasenergy.org/wind_projects_WI.htm)

The pictures clearly illustrate that the fossil fuel supply system and a vast industrial infrastructure support the manufacture and installation of these wind energy capturing devices. The tons of rebar and the yards of concrete offer a chance to look at the energy requirements for both. It is also important to point out that all the equipment used to install the turbines also have the fossil fuel supply system and the massive industrial infrastructure supporting them.

In researching this, the information for concrete was more definite than the range of energy required to make rebar.

_________________________________________________________________________________

REBAR

“Common rebar is made of unfinished tempered steel, making it susceptible to rusting. Normally the concrete cover is able to provide a pH value higher than 12 avoiding the corrosion reaction. Too little concrete cover can compromise this guard through carbonation from the surface, and salt penetration. Too much concrete cover can cause bigger crack widths which also compromises the local guard. As rust takes up greater volume than the steel from which it was formed, it causes severe internal pressure on the surrounding concrete, leading to cracking, spalling, and ultimately, structural failure. This phenomenon is known as oxide jacking. This is a particular problem where the concrete is exposed to salt water, as in bridges where salt is applied to roadways in winter, or in marine applications. Uncoated, corrosion-resistant low carbon/chromium (microcomposite), epoxy-coated, galvanized or stainless steel rebars may be employed in these situations at greater initial expense, but significantly lower expense over the service life of the project. Extra care is taken during the transport, fabrication, handling, installation, and concrete placement process when working with epoxy-coated rebar, because damage will reduce the long-term corrosion resistance of these bars.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebar

   http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/3c8ad-steel-ironmineenergy.jpg?w=535&h=502

“Under the most ideal circumstances, the energy required to produce solid iron from iron oxide can never be less than 7 million Btu per ton (MMBtu/ton). Since the energy required to melt iron under the most ideal circumstances is about 1 MMBtu/ton, the inherent thermodynamic advantage of making liquid steel from scrap rather than from iron ore is about 6 MMBtu/ton. When process heat losses are included, the advantage falls in the range of 9 to 14 MMBtu/ton. . . . current total energy requirements for the pro- Petroleum provides only a small amount of enduction of finished steel products in different pIants and countries from iron ore range from 25 to 35 MMBtu/net ton.”

https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk3/1983/8312/831210.PD

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/a8934-steelenergy2003.jpg?w=463&h=118

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/0a3a9-primarysteelproductionchart.jpg?w=503&h=413

 

http://www.eurosfaire.prd.fr/7pc/documents/1355390994_jrc_green_steel.pdf

The range above supports the 25 to 35 MMBtu/net ton. With various iron making processes, iron has a range of Btus per ton.   Converted to barrels of oil the range is 2.17 to 4.83 barrels of oil per ton of rebar.

Taking a conservative 3 barrels of oil per ton the rebar would require 135 barrels of oil for the base of the 2.5 MW Turbine.

On average, 1.8 tonnes of CO2 are emitted for every tonne of steel produced.

http://www.worldsteel.org/publications/position-papers/Steel-s-contribution-to-a-low-carbon-future.html

This means 1.98 tons of C02 emitted for every ton of steel produced.

IRON ORE PROCESS

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/cf8cf-colorsteelprocesschart.jpg?w=470&h=292

CEMENT ENERGY

Multiply 1.10231 to convert tonnes to tons

One yard of concrete equals two tons

http://www.cemexusa.com/ProductsServices/ReadyMixConcreteFaq.aspx

Two tons equals 1.81437 tonnes

4,426,832.62 Btus in a yard of concrete

5,800,000 Btus per barrel of oil

0.76 barrels of oil in a yard of concrete

32.06 gallons of oil in a yard of concrete

0.65 tons of CO2 per yard of concrete

478.8 Barrels of oil in 630 yards of concrete

20,195.52 Gallons of oil in 630 yards of concrete

409.5 Tons of CO2 per 630 yards of concrete

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/industries_technologies/imf/pdfs/eeroci_dec03a.pdf

THE CONCRETE PROCESS

http://damnthematrix.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/0d19c-productionofcement.jpg?w=533&h=340

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/industries_technologies/imf/pdfs/eeroci_dec03a.pdf

On-site energy values are based on actual process measurements taken within a facility. These measurements are valuable because the on-site values are the benchmarks that industry uses to compare performance between processes, facilities, and companies. On-site measurements, however, do not account for the complete energy and environmental impact of manufacturing a product. A full accounting of the impact of manufacturing must include the energy used to produce the electricity, the fuels, and the raw materials used on-site. These “secondary” or “tacit” additions are very important from a regional, national, and global energy and environment perspective.

Normal weight concrete weighs about 4000 lb. per cubic yard. Lightweight concrete weighs about 3000 lb. per cubic yard. If a truck is carrying 10 cubic yards, then the weight of the concrete is approximately 40,000 lb.

The tonne (British and SI; SI symbol: t) or metric ton (American) is a non-SI metric unit of mass equal to 1000 kilograms;[ it is thus equivalent to one megagram (Mg). 1000 kilograms is equivalent to approximately 2 204.6 pounds,

 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/industries_technologies/imf/pdfs/eeroci_dec03a.pdf

It is important to realize we have only looked at the energy for the concrete and rebar for the base of a 2.5 MMwatt turbine. Behind this device and most sun and wind capturing devices are a global system of providing energy and materials. And this support is further supported.   Here is one mining truck among a worldwide fleet of trucks that also must be manufactured. It is like a thread on a knitted sweater that when you pull it thinking you will get a small piece, you end up with a whole ball of yarn.

YOU DO THE MATHS





Wilful Blindness, Wilful Hypocrisy, You first. What’s your spin?

27 11 2014

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John Weber

Reblogged from John Weber’s website, with permission…….  John has lived off the grid for over 30 years making his own electricity from sun and wind..  He is most concerned about the psychological impact of the culture shock coming down the pike.

Here’s the deal. Research reveals that we lie to ourselves. Not you and I of course, but others do prolifically. Wilful Blindness is one of various books and research papers that verify this. We seem to fool ourselves for a variety of reasons. Two of the main reasons, one is self protective and the other is social protective.

From Margaret Heffernan’s Wilful Blindness:

“People are highly driven to do things that build self-worth; you can’t transgress and think of yourself as bad. You need to protect your sense of yourself as good. And so people transform harmful practices into worthy ones, by coming up with social justification, by distancing themselves with euphemisms, by ignoring the long-term consequences of their actions. “

Heffernan, Margaret. 2011. Wilful Blindness: Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril. Walker. N.Y. pg. 195.

This is something that I have known for a long time. Here is a quote from my journal written when I was around twelve years of age. It is from a book on psychology but I don’t know which. I started reading psychology books at eleven – Freud, Havelock Ellis, Kraft-Ebing, Jung, etc. Yes, I have always been strange. I didn’t know to copy references at that age.

“We build up a picture of ourselves; hence, we come to expect certain things from ourselves, to value ourselves and to do everything possible to keep this idealized picture of ourselves unspoiled.”

The social protective is our very human need to belong. The essence of being human is being a social animal. We must learn the rules of our particular game early – language, emotional display, right, wrong, and most importantly how to belong. We carry this early training (shaping) with us our whole life. Without it we do not survive physically or psychologically.

“As the pioneering psychopharmacologist Jaak Panksepp put it, ‘social affect and social bonding are in some fundamental neurochemical sense opioid addictions.’In other words, our desire to seek social connection with others comes from chemical rewards as well as social ones.”

Heffernan, Margaret. 2011. Willful Blindness: Why We Ignore the Obvious at Our Peril. Walker. N.Y. pg. 132.

Endorphins: Endorphins (“endogenous morphine”) are endogenous opioid peptides that function as neurotransmitters.[1] They are produced by the pituitary gland and the hypothalamus in vertebrates during exercise,[2] excitement, pain, consumption of spicy food, love and orgasm,[3][4] and they resemble the opiates in their abilities to produce analgesia and a feeling of well-being.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorphin

. . . the general argument is that we deceive ourselves the better to deceive others. To fool others, we may be tempted to reorganize information internally in all sorts of improbable ways and to do so largely unconsciously. . . . the primary function of self-deception is offensive – measured as the ability to fool others.

Trivers, Robert. 2011. The Folly of Fools. Basic Books. N.Y.

Here is the point of this. There is lots of information about the convergence of serious problems. There is lots of information – books, articles, internet, meetings – on these problems and the solutions.

“. . . A lot of people think we were facing our last century as a viable civilization, maybe even as a species. Global warming, overpopulation, the death of he seas, the loss of arable land, the proliferation of disease, the threat of nuclear or biological warfare . . .”

“We might have destroyed ourselves but at least it would have been our own fault.”

“Would it, though? Whose fault exactly? Yours? Mine? No, it would have been the result of several billion humn beings making relatively innocuous choices: to have kids, drive a car to work, keep their job, solve the short-term problems first. When you reach the point at which even the most trivial acts are punishable by the death of the species, then obviously, obviously, you’re at a critical juncture, a different kin of point of no return.”

Wilson, Robert Charles. 2005. Spin. Tom Doherty Associates Book. N.Y. pg.127-128.

In essence few if any of us are really doing a damn thing about it. We all have our spin.

From the Energy Round Table – a quote from the moderator and in italics a poster:

“Hitting the gas pedal decades ago is not something that

I think anyone who understood the problem would have

done. Why would anyone with half a brain make a plan

that severely damaged the biosphere of the planet that

their descendants would have to live (or die) on??”

Bill Tamblyn – Moderator

If we don’t use all the water, someone else will.

If we don’t use the oil, someone else will.

If we don’t burn the coal, someone else will.

If we don’t spread GMO crops, someone else will.

If we don’t make more babies, someone else will.

If we don’t waste the biosphere, someone else will.

If hitting the oil or coal or baby or gas pedal

gets me ahead or more status, then I must do it.

Was this a plan or lots of little plans?

More likely we just can’t help ourselves?

Does tragedy of the commons fit here?

Arlen Comfort

My partner in answer to using a banana each day at breakfast and buying strawberries grown a thousand miles away said, “But I don’t buy roses.” Friends, who I love dearly and who are very environmentally and energy conscious, have a business totally dependent on driving to supply it and tourism for its success. They modified their distribution paths and feel they have made a significant change.

WHAT IS YOUR SPIN?

Let’s be clear.  Every mile we drive supports fracking, tar sands, pollution of the oceans, underground water, rivers, the air, and our food.Each meeting we attend to save the earth from whatever surely makes us feel good.Each thing we write, each time we talk about this, we are playing the Transactional Analysis game – “Ain’t it Awful?”.

Each of the maybe billion of us at the top of the energy/resource heap are rushing towards the cliff. I do not to excuse myself from the spinning. This from one of my other essays:

Just say I.

I am polluting our ground water by using the natural gas from fracking. I am creating havoc in the oceans by spilling life-killing oil. I am also plasticizing the oceans. I am also limiting or eliminating species after species in the ocean, on the land, in the air. I am putting my medicines into the rivers and the water supply. I am greedily creating food sources that only I control. I am removing the topsoil. I am gouging huge holes in the earth. I am burning coal and creating nuclear waste for thousands of years to come for my flat screen television, my computer and my DVD player. I am putting mercury and acids into the air, water and life. I am melting the ice caps and the glaciers. I am heating the planet to drive my snowmobile, my wave runner, and my four-wheeler and to drive to any damn place I want. I am using many people to cater to my many whims.

I saw the DVD “What a Way to Go” yesterday. It was very well done in listing the freight train laden with our woes coming straight at us. The many speakers continually said, “we are doing this” and “we are doing that”. They must have been talking about me. Because I am aware of these things and more and I keep doing it.

http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2011/05/just-say-i.html

John Weber

Busy in Northern Minnesota doing all these things and more.

So enjoy while you can. I am.

Some internet sources:

http://climateandenergynews.zparking.net/

http://www.peakoil.com/

http://www.energybulletin.net/

http://guymcpherson.com/

My site: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

Abelson, Robert P. 2004. Experiments with people : revelations from social psychology. Lawrence Erlbaum. Mahwah, N.J.

Bayne, Tim and Fernández.Jordi, editors. 2009. Delusion and self-deception : affective and motivational influences on belief formation. Psychology Press. New York.

Berne, Eric. 1964. Games people play : the psychology of human relationships. Grove Press. New York.

Berners-Lee. Mike. 2011. How Bad Are Bananas?: The Carbon Footprint of Everything. Greystone. Vancouver.

Cumpsty. John S. 1991. Religion as Belonging. University Press of America. N.Y.

Fonseca, Eduardo Giannetti da. 2000. Lies we live by : the art of self-deception. St. Martin’s Press. New York.

Gianetti, Eduardo. 1997. Lies We Live By: The Art of Self-Deception. Bloomsbury. N.Y.

Hirstein, William. 2005. Brain fiction : self-deception and the riddle of confabulation. MIT Press. Cambridge, Mass.

Keyes, Ralph. 2004. The Post-truth Era. St. Martin’s Press. N.Y.

Kurzban, Robert. 2010. Why everybody (else) is a hypocrite. Princeton.

Lockard, Joan S. and Paulhus, Delroy L. Editors. 1988. Self-Deception: An Adaptive Mechanism. Prentice Hall. New Jersey.

Mele, Alfred R. 2001. Self-deception unmasked. Princeton University Press. Princeton, N.J.

Triandis, Harry Charalambos. 2009. Fooling ourselves : self-deception in politics, religion, and terrorism. Praeger Publishers. Westport, Conn.

Twerski, Abraham J. 1997. Addictive thinking : understanding self-deception. Hazelden. Center City, MN.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depersonalization_disorder

“. . . The farther removed we become from our neighbours, the more siloed in our self-sufficiency, the easier it is to treat people as things, to turn a blind eye to the human costs of toxic cultures and to make immoral decisions.

LIES

Credibility gap

Reframing

Terminological inexactitudes (Winston Churchill’s)

Poetic truth

Parallel truth

Nuanced truth

Imaginative truth

Virtual truth

Alternative reality

Strategic misrepresentations

Creative enhancement

Non-full disclosure

Selective disclosure

Augmented reality

Nearly true

Almost true

Counterfactual statements

Fact-based information

TO LIE

Enrich the truth

Enhance the truth

Embroider the truth

Massage the truth

Tamper with the truth

Tell more than the truth

Bend the truth

Soften the truth

Shade the truth

Shave the truth

Stretch the truth

Stray from the truth

Withhold the truth

Tell the truth improved

Present the truth in a favourable perspective

Make things clearer than the truth

Be lenient with honesty

Spin

Keyes, Ralph. 2004. The Post-truth Era. St. Martin’s Press. N.Y. pg.15-16.





On a missed opportunity

26 11 2014

Maybe it’s my ingrained negativity, maybe it’s something else, but I have this irresistible compulsion to write this article; even though in many ways the house which is the subject of this post would at first glance appear to be a dream home, it just grates with me as a missed opportunity, and one that is growing as I think about it more and more.

My dear other half received an email from a friend who know the people selling this house in the Huon Valley, which is of course where we want to live.  The views are to die for, no doubt about that, and the house is a solar powered 8 star energy efficient one.  So why do I disapprove?  Read on…….

125 Swamp Road, Franklin, Tas 7113

The living space is just 70m².  I could live with that, if it had been cleverly designed.  But it isn’t.  You have to walk through the floorplan1kitchen from the bedroom to the [tiny tiny] bathroom and toilet….. which is flushing!  More about that later….  I really don’t like the kitchen, no space to work, let alone make cheese.  To heat it, they use a wood heater, when they could have had a wood cooker., that probably would save them on firewood in the long term, instead of using gas which we all know will become short soon, especially in Tasmania where all the gas comes from the big island up North….

The owners tell us that they don’t like walking on concrete, and thus have an above ground timber floor….  that almost certainly cost them the two more stars needed to make this the 10 star house it should have been.  Instead, they used this fandangled phase change thermal mass idea, which they put in the roof when it should have gone in the floor…..  sigh….  And what a missed opportunity for an earth bermed house, the site is perfect!

In the video linked below, the owner proudly announces that their 3.7kW solar array has all but ended their power bills.  Really?  Our 3.5kW system produces six to seven times what we need here, so where on Earth does all the power used in this tiny house occupied by just 2 people go…?  This is where the missed opportunities comes in.

First, the flushing toilet; all the waste from this house goes into an award winning Biolytix system.  This one, it appears, works fine, because it’s on steep well drained terrain with about five acres of grass below it to soak it all up, but the fact of the matter is, Biolytix went into receivership way back in January 2011 because nearly all the systems here in Queensland failed.  They cost between $10,000 and $12,000 to put in (probably more in Tasmania, as they came from Qld) and consume 44kWh per year, not a huge amount, but 44kWh more than our system here consumes!  Biolytix was founded by Dean Cameron in Maleny not far from here.  He’d already gone bust before with their Dowmus wet composting toilet arrangement, and you’d think he would have learned the error of his ways the first time.  Mixing water with shit is simply a bad idea, and to prove it, the very first house I designed for Glenda’s uncle and aunt in the Glasshouse Mountains has a Dowmus that still works because…… it has a dry pedestal sitting above it!  It may well be the only one still working, as far as I know.  Biolytix systems also cost some $400 a year in maintenance, at least in Qld.  I have no idea how much this might cost in Tassie.  Conclusion…….  they should have installed a dry composting toilet.

Where is all that solar energy going?  To start with, there is no solar hot water system.  I expect they have a heat pump, though if they have gas for cooking, they may also have a gas HWS.  Either way, it’s another missed opportunity, they could have done what we did and have a wood boosted solar heater and save on loads of PVs….

Then of course there are the two big iMacs in the study, which both use 170W (according to Apple) while our two laptops use a quarter of this consumption.  The conventional fridge in the kitchen would also consume some five times more power than our cool idea, and then there’s the huge TV in the lounge.  Beats me why anyone thinks they need such a large TV in a small lounge room like this house has…..

At 400 grand, it would be the most we could afford, and even then we’d probably have to go into a small debt unless they were prepared to come down….  having bought this admittedly great property – even though it’s steeper than I would like – we would have nothing left to rip out the kitchen and toilet, and switch to standalone power.  In the video, the owner happily states that they still have access to water in blackouts because of their header tank.

I’m almost tempted to describe this as a classic example of Jevons Paradox….

Is there anything I like?  Maybe I’m being overly pedantic;  it’s just that I’m not terribly inclined to move that far only to compromise on my list of essentials.  Going back to what I like, as I’ve already stated, the views are to die for (but they won’t feed you), I love the highland cattle, and the double glazed timber doors I would kill for.  There’s a lot of potential there……  but it would all cost money we simply won’t have.  If it were available as a blank slate, it would be marvellous, though I hate to think how much the driveway cost them….  and we still haven’t sold Mon Abri, though we have some seven parties that are very very interested, but who all have to sell their current abodes to win the race…!  It’s all happening, just in terribly slow motion.

 





The Powers of Fossil Fuels

23 11 2014

mikestasse:

“From 2012 to 2013 global FFs consumption grew more than what total global consumption of solar and wind was in 2013 (this according to data from BP Statistical Review 2014).” says it all from where I sit…..

Originally posted on FRACTIONAL FLOW:

In this post I present a brief perspective spanning two centuries of the history of energy and mainly fossil fuels (FFs) consumption. Then a brief look at the recent years growth in solar and wind (renewables) and how their growth measures up against FFs since 1990.

Figure 1: The chart above shows the developments in the world’s total energy consumption split on sources as from 1800 and into 2013. The chart has been developed in a joint between Dr Nate Hagens and me.

Figure 1: The chart above shows the developments in the world’s total energy consumption split on sources as from 1800 and into 2013. The chart has been developed in a joint between Dr Nate Hagens and me.

In the early 1800s biomass (primarily wood) were humans’ primary source for exogenous energy. Coal became increasingly introduced into the energy mixture after the successful development and deployment of the steam engine which gave birth to the Industrial Revolution. Coal is a nonrenewable, abundant and a denser energy source than wood.

The growing use of biomass had led to deforestation in those areas serving energy intensive industries…

View original 727 more words





Bakken Sweet Spots are Petering Out

23 11 2014

Ron Patterson

Reblogged from Ron Patterson’s Peak Oil Barrel site Posted on

I’m so glad there are people out there who have access to the data and know how to interpret it so plebs like us can understand what is really happening in the world of Peak Oil…..

The Bakken, as well as other shale oil areas, is not one homogeneous area where equal amounts of can be found. David Hughes in DRILLING DEEPER puts it this way, though here he is talking about gas wells, the same applies to oil wells:

All shale gas plays invariably have “core” areas or “sweet spots”, where individual well production is highest and hence the economics are best. Sweet spots are targeted and drilled off early in a play’s lifecycle, leaving lesser quality rock to be drilled as the play matures (requiring higher gas prices to be economic); thus the number of wells required to offset field decline inevitably increases with time.

However the Bakken, at least through the September North Dakota Industrial Commission  production report, has given no real indication that the Bakken is even close to peaking. But a closer look at the data makes me believe that is all about to change.

The NDIC issues a Daily Activity Report where they list permits issued as well as wells completed and wells released from the tight hole confidential list. These reports usually, but not always, also give the number of barrels of oil per day and barrels of water per day for the first 24 hours of production.  I have gone through every day, back to November 1st, 2013 and collected the data on every well listed that gives production numbers and copied that data to Excel. In that one year and three weeks I have gathered the data form every one of the 2,171 wells that give production numbers. Sorting these wells by well number, which is the original permit number, gives some startling results.

ND 200 Well Avg

To smooth the chart I created a 200 well average of barrels per day per well. The first point on the chart is therefore the average to the 200th well, #23890 and the last point is the 200 well average to the 2171st well, #28971. As you can see there has been a continuous, though erratic, decline in first 24 hour production as the well numbers increase.

ND Prod per 1000

Breaking this down according to well numbers we see production peaked with the 2400s and have steady decline since. Every group of well numbers do not contain the same number of wells.

Well Numbers BOPD       Number of Wells in Sample
18s – 22s              1,235                81
23000s                1,362               134
24000s                 1,497               285
25000s                 1,320              676
26000s                 1,198              591
27000s                 1,016              361
28000s                   841                40

ND Barrels per Well

The above chart is monthly first 24 hour production per well and first 24 hour percent water per well of all wells that the NDIC listed production numbers. The November 2014 numbers are only through November 21st.

Note: The first 24 hours of production is far from being the average first years production. And though all wells are different I am relatively sure there is an average conversion rate but I have no idea what it is. I would guess it is somewhere between one quarter to one third of the first 24 hours of production. But if anyone has any idea what the average conversion factor is, if one exists, please email me at DarwinianOne at Gmail.com, or post it in the comments section of this post.

North Dakota issues drilling permits in sequential order. But those permits are not drilled in sequence. Drillers will often sit on a permit for two to three years, renewing then as the law requires.

A list of all active drilling rigs, the well number they are working on and the date they started can be found at the NDIC’s Current Active Drilling Rig List They are listed according to their API number but the list can be copied and pasted into Excel and sorted according to your wishes.

Well List

Of the 191 rigs working, 39 or 20% are working well numbers below 28000. 76 or 40% of rigs are working well numbers in the 28000s. And 76 or 40% are working well numbers in the 29000s. Permit #28000 was issued on March 26. 2014. So 80% of all rigs are working on recently issued permits.

As of November 21st, the highest well number completed was #28971. The highest number well currently being drilled is #29908. The highest permit number issued is #30076.

Will enhanced oil recovery keep the Bakken going into the future. A simple one word answer is “no”, as this article explains.

Enhanced oil recovery techniques limited in shale

Energy companies currently leave about 95 percent of the crude in the ground at today’s unconventional oil wells, but they face major technological challenges in boosting recovery rates, a Schlumberger scientist said Tuesday…

“Our entire spectrum of secondary recovery methods don’t work,” Kleinberg said, in a sobering talk at the Energy Information Administration’s annual summit in the nation’s capital.

Water flooding — where water can be swept from separate injection and producer wells — isn’t an option because the tight oil formations are too dense to permit those water flows.

And while carbon dioxide can be used to pressure up a conventional oil well, there’s currently a limit on the amount of that gas that is available to pump underground. “The oil industry would like to have more CO2, which is a great way to get more oil out of the ground, but there are limits on affordable, accessible supplies of CO2,” Kleinberg said, quipping: “The oil industry lives in a CO2 constrained world; it is only the oil industry that thinks there is not enough carbon dioxide.”

In conclusion, first 24 hour production per well, when measured by well number, has dropped by 40 percent since peaking in the 24000s. This, to me anyway, clearly indicates that the sweet spots are playing out and companies are now drilling on less productive acreage. I now believe that North Dakota production will peak no later than 2015 with a high probability that 2014 will prove to be the peak year.

Note: I send an email notice when I publish a new post. If you would like to receive that notice then email me at DarwinianOne at Gmail.com.

 





Climate Chaos Casino: Another Roll of the Dice

23 11 2014

mikestasse:

This article will hopefully shut up the idiots who tell me that “global warming is a hoax, just look at how cold it is in America…!”

Originally posted on Collapse of Industrial Civilization:

71d75d96a87e42e0872549392d418a9b-62e81f740681423c9e0d6d2ccf796237-0“A vehicle, with a large chunk of snow on its top, drives along Route 20 after digging out from a massive snow fall in Lancaster, N.Y. on Nov. 19″

Snow-Bombed Buffalo NY

Buffalo, NY is the latest loser of industrial civilization’s destabilization of the climate with a tally of 13 dead, 30 major roof collapses and nearly three times as many minor roof collapses, not to mention the soon-to-be flooded homes as the mountains of snow melt in next week’s wild oscillation back to unseasonably high temps. As much as 90 inches of snow fell on the Buffalo area in just three days, prompting climatologist Paul Beckwith to tweet the following remarks:

Snap 2014-11-21 at 22.03.16

Snap 2014-11-21 at 22.04.44

What Happens in the Arctic Does Not Stay in the Arctic

What caused this unusually heavy lake-effect snowstorm in Buffalo?…
Firstly, record warm Pacific waters gave birth to Super Typhoon Nuri, the second most intense tropical cyclone worldwide of 2014. Also fueling the creation of such a…

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