Still on Track for the Collapse of Modern Civilization

15 10 2014

Originally posted on Collapse of Industrial Civilization:

BeFunky_null_u1.jpg

Two recent pieces of scientific evidence really hammer home the predicament of modern industrial civilization, and they have to do with the fact that our globalized, just-in-time economic model is hopelessly wed to carbon-based energy. Once one understands this, then there can be no delusions about why we are on such a catastrophic trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions. As was explained in a previous post, GDP is fundamentally and directly linked to CO2 emissions. Below, two graphs(click to go to source) illustrate this fact:

C02 emissions since 1850 (red); exponential growth (blue); cuts to hit climate target (dashed).

Graphic_PE_CoalUseIncreased

It’s not really about evil fossil fuel companies, although they do certainly exert enormous political clout and do conspire to protect their business model by doing such things as spreading doubt on climate change science, but as with all corporations, externalizing social and environmental costs is endemic to the profit system and the coercive forces of competition in capitalist markets.

Firstly, there is the graph submitted by…

View original 1,746 more words





The False Solutions of Green Energy

13 10 2014

Max Wilbert & Cameron Foley expose the fallacies of “green” technology by tracing the process of industrial production for these technologies and exposing the destruction they cause.

I suggest you download the pdf file that has the slides in it, and watch that while you listen to the youtube video…….

Powerpoint slides available at https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/123254/Long%20Term%20Shares/PIELC%20Talk.pdf





Revolutions are born of you and me…….

11 10 2014

Consumed – Is Our Consumer Culture Leading to Disaster?

A very powerful video you can watch instead of viewing the Bathurst race..!  The message is clear, we are at the evolutionary crossroads.  Enjoy….

Or for downloads and more information:
http://www.journeyman.tv/?lid=62290

Consumerism has become the cornerstone of the post-industrial age. Yet how much do we know about it and what it is doing to us? Using theories of evolutionary psychology to underpin a bold narrative of our times, this film takes a whirlwind tour through the “weird mental illness of consumerism”, showing how our insatiable appetite has driven us into “the jaws of the beast”. Both an apocalyptic and redemptive view of the human condition.

Journeyman Pictures is your independent source for the world’s most powerful films, exploring the burning issues of today. We represent stories from the world’s top producers, with brand new content coming in all the time. On our channel you’ll find outstanding and controversial journalism covering any global subject you can imagine wanting to know about.





More on Renewables fantasy

10 10 2014

As debate continues to rage over at The Conversation I have now mentioned several times regarding future Carbon emissions, I continually come across people who misunderstand our energy conundrums.  It gives me satisfaction to be able to rattle their collective cages, and introduce them to notions like the energy cliff, and the utterly essential continuation of oil production for mining the resources we need to keep business as usual operating.

Interestingly, some of the commentators there introduce me to things I knew nothing about.  Which is good; because it makes me think further about why their solutions will not save the day, and forces me to do some more research and keep the old brain cells alive and ticking.  For instance, when I pointed the conversation towards Simon Michaux’s Peak Mining presentation available on this blog, and that I thought mining without diesel would be impossible, along comes this person who points me to mining trucks powered by overhead electricity, much like an electric train.  This is readily feasible of course, because all those big Tonka Trucks are already running on electric motors, powered by a huge diesel enegine that spins an equally huge generator to produce the electricity for the motors….. very much like a diesel electric locomotive.  My first reaction, however, was ‘how can they move the overhead lines constantly as the bottom of the mine expands and keeps changing shape’?

Here is a video of how they operate……

Now, this video makes claims such as ‘saving energy’, which I suggest it clearly does not.  While running in ‘trolley mode’, diesel consumption may fall from 360L/hr to 45L/hr, but now it’s burning electricity instead, and it’s STILL burning diesel!  On top of that, this video claims that by using electric lines, they can increase the speed of the truck from 8km/hr to 24km/hr….  hello, don’t they realise there is no free lunch?  Going faster requires more energy, especially uphill!  Instead of reducing energy consumption, I think this would actually increase it.  I would like to see total energy consumption in MJ/km rather than merely saying the trucks use less diesel.  You’ll notice that the overhead lines are only used in the uphill sections.

This then got me thinking about why they would go to this trouble.  After all, spending capital to electrify the lifting of ores from the bottom of a mine pit just as the price of these commodities is falling, seems counter intuitive to me.  Until that is, you put two and two together and realise that as the ore concentrations fall off a cliff, more and more ore has to be brought up for processing, and faster and faster to boot, just to keep up with production of the final resource, in this case Copper.  But wait, there’s more…  research shows Zambia produces 200 barrels of oil a day.  NOT 200,000……  two hundred!  On top of that, Zambia gets 100% of its electricity from hydro.  So of course, what else would they do?

Further down The Conversation, someone else makes the comment “Solar thermal is a very new technology, do you think ERoEI values estimated now will apply for all time? ”  Well no…….  thermodynamics dictates that ERoEI will always fall!

“”To maintain a society like ours requires an overall ERoEI of about 12:1″. Perhaps, but perhaps not, that’s a fairly bold assertion, I’m not sure of the weight of evidence behind it. One would also assume that as the easily accessible fossil fuels are increasingly depleted, the ERoEI of fossil fuels would be decreasing (unlike that of renewables which is increasing).”

This is classic.  People who want to believe in a renewables powered future apparently also believe that renewables’ ERoEI can magically rise, just as the fossil fuels’ ERoEI, the very energy sources used to make the renewables, falls.  Talk about white man’s magic….

IF we require to build more and more robots, just build more and more robots, to make more and more PVs to power the robots, and make more robots to build more Tonka Tucks, to dig more and more mineral ores, just so we can build more factories to house more robots to….  well, you get the message.  We are sinking alarmingly increasing amounts of energy and non renewable resources into a black hole, and for what…?

Making someone already rich even richer.  Game over.

By the way, an alarmingly high number of people are predicting a looming financial correction of epic proportion, maybe even this month (October 2014).  I’m not qualified to comment on this, except as just another passenger, but I found this quite concerning.  A bit long at 34 minutes, and the interviewer keeps interrupting annoyingly, but what does everyone else think?





Machines, making machines, to make PVs, to power machines to make more….

9 10 2014

I know I lead a sheltered life, but what I have just discovered (and should have known existed, really…) has me nodding my head in disbelief.  We’ve all seen those mesmerising robots that weld cars together and even solder computer boards and assemble all manner of modern life’s little conveniences, but I have to admit it never occurred to me that they would be used to multiply…  like this:

THEN……  they are also used now to manufacture PVs…

AND…

After watching that, it’s really obvious why people are dazzled by technology…….  how can there ever be any limits to our ingenuity?  Well, for starters, how about the fact these things put huge numbers of people out of work, who can no longer afford to buy the stuff the robots make..?  Or that surely all this stuff was made with ever increasing amounts of non renewable resources, causing greenhouse emissions at every stage?

While participating in the Conversation’s degrowth article I’ve mentioned a couple of posts ago, this Ted-X presentation in Moscow came up.  It’s a bit longer than most at about 30 minutes, and I hasten to add the presenter Harald Sverdrup is not the most fluent public speaker I’ve ever seen, but his points are valid nonetheless.  If you are familiar with Limits to Growth, I recommend skipping the first half.  I’d love to know what you all think…





The 100% renewables fantasy

6 10 2014

I’ve hardly written anything in weeks, and today, I’m rattling off new posts like a machine gun…..  It’s what happens when I discover new information for DTM followers to digest!  What you are about to see just had to be shared….

The disconnect between reality and fantasy is very visible when it comes to the 100% renewable energy cult.  But today I have found some graphics to share that explain the folly of such a notion.  let’s start with this one (hat tip to Erial A Secas from FaceBook):

When I take a look at that…….  all I see are greenhouse emissions!  I haven’t done the maths, and I suggest no one else has either, but I’m prepared to bet it would take the burning of every last drop of affordable fossil energy left, to build all this stuff.  Let us never forget that everything that was built during the 20th Century was done so one brick at a time, as and when it was needed, using growing sources of ever cheaper oil coal and gas.  Compare that to today…..  when we have to replace EVERYTHING, every coal and gas fired power station, every nuke (they’re all reaching their use by date), every petrol/gasoline station, with decreasing amounts of fossil fuels that are getting dearer and dearer to extract (even if the current commodity prices are dropping like stones in a pond), at a time when we should end fossil energy use altogether, NOW, to avert climate catastrophe…..

WHAT are they thinking……….??  Obviously they are not thinking.

I loved the comment Susan Krumdieck posted on FB regarding this nonsense….:

Too bad Ed Hillary isn’t still alive. We could ask him what it takes to get to the top of a really high mountain –

1) being positive, or

2) being prepared, determined, realistic and strong? If the general public, and especially those who even care about the issues, can be convinced that everything has to be positive, then we are susceptible to DISTRACTION by all manner of things including spin stories about happy nonsense. There is a lot of hard work to do, and distraction is not helping. Yet – the cult of positivity is growing in popularity, particularly among youth who are actually the catalyst for change when society is heading in the wrong direction. Pied Piper.

One of the very best charts I’ve ever spotted to illustrate the embodied energy of stuff needed to keep complex civilisation going looks like this:

This really puts paid to the irrational thinking that we will simply switch that white man’s magic called Renewable Energy.  There’s nothing renewable about it at all.  It is simply an extension of the fossil fuel industry, which may (or may not) keep ‘civilisation running a little longer….  but that’s all.  Because repairing, maintaining and replacing all this stuff post Peak Everything will be simply impossible….

How do we do this without huge amounts of fossil energy?  Or going into even more debt – as if we could stand the level of indebtedness currently weighing the world’s economies down?

I really fear that this stupid drive to run Business as usual only with renewables will destroy our capacity to make the very same things for localised and low level consumption to keep people alive during the power down era that will inevitably start soon.  Building all those large projects will kill us all in my opinion, if only because of the unnecessary Carbon emissions that will ensue.  We need to take a very deep breath on this one, before it’s too late….

 





Where is the price of oil heading?

6 10 2014

In the sidebar at right of this blog is a live WTC (West Texas Crude) price chart.  I’ve been watching it intently because WTC has been in the low 90’s for some time, and has actually gone under it as I write.  What is going on?  There is a lot of debate about this all over the internet at the moment too….  is this a ‘sign’ that the October financial heebee jeebies are about to strike, again?

Take a look at this chart (lifted from Nicole Foss’ website)

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OilBreakevenPrices.png

Data from Reuters, IEA, Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg

At the current $90 price, not even Saudi Arabia (which has just posted its first deficit) can break even.  So what is causing this collapse in the oil price?

There is much speculation that ‘someone’ wants to punish Putin for his demeanours in the Ukraine, but if this ‘someone’ is American, then they are seriously hurting the shale oil companies there who can’t even make a profit when oil is at $100….  Or is this someone’s way of ensuring, if you can even put it that way, that GFC MkII doesn’t happen…… yet?  Are we seeing short-term trends? Ironically, the current prices – and remember, oil dropped to $40 in 2008 – are set to cause such mayhem in production and investment due to the fact that much has changed in the oil industry since 2008, that prices must go up again no matter what the economy does.  We are seeing the proverbial rock and a hard place today…….

There is also much confusion in the media, as Ilargi explains:

How reliable are OPEC numbers? Are those just the ones members themselves report? Saudi Arabia has a deficit, AND they cut prices, AND they cut production? I can’t say I’ve figured out either the real actions, or the reasons behind them, but that doesn’t make any sense as a stand-alone set of facts. So why do they do it, if they do, if these things are accurate? We’ve yet to find out.

Saudi enjoys some of the lowest production costs, excluding capital expenditure on new projects, in the region of $2 per barrel, giving it a large margin to soak up a sudden drop-off in price. This compares with estimated production costs in the North Sea which are in the region of $50 per barrel, according to Oil & Gas UK figures.

The graph puts Saudi production costs at $90 per barrel, and the Telegraph, which published the graph, puts it at $2? Please explain, guys. Is that $88 per barrel in “capital expenditure on new projects”?

But then again, today’s modern media just copy/paste stuff without ever checking their facts, the people who put articles in these papers are usually totally ignorant of facts.  I was just shown an article in the Cairns Post (Nth Qld) claiming a new solar farm was going to be built near Cooktown, one of the highest rainfall places in Australia, illustrating the story with a solar thermal plant that would only be built in a desert somewhere.  Then adding that this would alleviate post cyclonic blackouts (told you it rains a lot there!) because the solar plant would be more reliable…….  Hello?  Power goes down when the grid goes down from downed power lines, not because power generators are blown away!  FAIL….  Believe nothing you read in mainstream media is my new motto.  But I digress….

Ilargi continues with……:

Fracking has helped the US achieve its highest oil production levels since 1986 over the last two months at a rate of 8.5m bpd. The threat of a full lifting of the ban on exports has also helped the US to drive down the price and potentially cripple the Russian economy. Moscow is largely dependent on crude sales for foreign currency earnings and oil trading at around $80 per barrel for a period of months could bring the country to its knees.

Something tells me that Putin is far more aware of the reality of the shale industry than Americans are. Which is that shale oil has a present, but no future.

[..] if Opec fails to cut production in response to the current trend in falling oil prices then around 9% of US “tight oil” output would be immediately rendered uneconomic at a level of $90 per barrel. This figure would rise to 39% should prices slump as low as $80 per barrel.

Again, I don’t believe this for a second. It may be true is you exclude capital costs, but what if you include them, as in normal accounting, and what happens when interest rates rise, in an industry that’s borrowed itself up to its infinity and beyond?

Cute article, nice try, but in the end it leaves far too many questions.

Yep……  oil’s future is in serious doubt if these shennanigans continue, and as a result, so will the future of renewables.

Watch this space.








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